Elections in 2027: A scenario that is no longer imaginary

The bloc's candidate for Prime Minister receives a clear majority of 65 MKs and celebrates victory, but during the formation of the government, things start to go wrong. One side in the coalition insists on its principles, while potential partners take a hard line.

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Everyone is sure that this is an attempt to improve positions in negotiations, but the leader is completely serious. To everyone's amazement, 74 MKs dissolve the Knesset a month and a half after the elections. And the one who insisted? He is rewarded and surges in the next elections. His name is Avigdor Lieberman, by the way. This is not a hypothetical forecast; this is exactly what happened just seven years ago.

The tune returns

The scenario circulating on the right recently is the mobilization slogan "1992 is returning," evoking memories of Oslo, terror attacks, and the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. The mess in the national camp reminds them of the "Tehiya" party, which failed to pass the electoral threshold, handing power to the left. This scenario will be clearer in two weeks when the final lists of candidates for the Knesset are known.

Meanwhile, one must look straight at another completely realistic possibility: 2019 is returning, and repeat elections are back on the table.

Two weeks ago, we wrote about what could happen if the "Zionist change bloc" secured 61 seats and the expected attempt by Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman to join forces and form a government instead of Gadi Eizenkot. But what will happen if the Zionist bloc does not have a majority in the Knesset?

There is a revolutionary option to believe all the politicians' statements. Despite the gap between various TV channel polls, none of them gives the change bloc a Zionist majority, and the unification of the Arab parties this week only worsened the situation. We are addressing the possibility where no side can form a government.

Editorial note: More than predicting the future, it is important to understand how the option for a quick dissolution of the Knesset changes the behavior of the players in the present.

Signs of the 2027 elections

Gadi Eizenkot recently started talking about a minority government with 58 MKs, relying on the abstention of the Arab parties. It is hard to exaggerate the drama of this step: in the midst of an election campaign, a candidate for Prime Minister is trying to entice the public with a government without a majority. Keren Turner from Bennett's party defined this as "defeatism." However, it is not certain that in their current situation, the "Beyad" party would mourn another round of improvements.

Furthermore, Avigdor Lieberman was interviewed this week for the podcast of Sefi Ovadia and Lior Keinan, where he firmly refused a minority government and set another ultimatum: even if the bloc has more than 61 mandates, without "minimum conditions" regarding conscription and a constitution, he will go to new elections rather than join the government. Add to this a clear rejection of a minority government from Chili Tropper, Gilad Erdan, and Benny Gantz, and the result is unequivocal: if no one flips, as of now, on October 28, we will start opening our diaries for elections next year.

This lie again

We checked this issue in a special poll this week. In the Benjamin Netanyahu bloc, the answer is clear: the absolute majority (76%) will choose Aryeh Deri and Yitzhak Goldknopf. However, 16.5% of them (about 9 mandates) would prefer to go to the ballot box again.

In the change bloc, the situation is much more split: more than half of the respondents preferred a government with the Arabs, while an alliance with the Haredim is in last place. But pay attention: one in five from the opposition would prefer repeat elections. The leading parties in the bloc for this option are "Yashar!" (26%) and "Yisrael Beiteinu" (23%).

In other words, a party leader in the change bloc will tell himself: if my voting public is so divided on what to do without a majority, there is one option that at least doesn't involve breaking any promises—returning to the people. In any other option, you are lying to the voters and setting a huge part of them against you. In the case of repeat elections, you are at least standing by your principles.

The possible solution has been mentioned here again and again: in the next Knesset, there will be about 90 MKs who are not Haredim or Arabs and could easily form a broad and stable government. But in the current atmosphere, they don't even think of doing so.

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The statistics in recent years are unequivocal: out of four election campaigns that were without a clear decision (only in 2022 was there a decision), twice a shaky government was formed that collapsed after a year, and twice the MKs chose to go to the ballot boxes again. The players are taking this scenario into account. In 2019, it turned out that an election campaign can only be the primaries for the campaign after it. If they had treated the elections as decisive, they could have been flexible. But when they understand that they are only preparation for the next elections, everyone climbs the trees.