"Super El Niño" Disrupts Global Weather: Summer Rains Expected This Weekend
Heavy rains and potential flooding are expected in parts of Israel this weekend, right at the peak of summer. Meteorologists attribute this unusual weather to the global "Super El Niño" phenomenon.
According to Meteorological Service models, heavy rains are expected to hit Israel over the weekend—a rare occurrence at the peak of summer—with forecasts indicating potential flooding in some areas. Experts suggest this is an expression of the "Super El Niño" phenomenon, a climate event that began in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to peak in December, currently disrupting weather patterns across nearly every continent.
How unusual is rain in the first half of August? It depends on the location. Drizzle is not uncommon on the coastal plain, occurring roughly every two years. More significant rainfall (5–10 mm) is rarer, mainly inland, occurring on average every 5 to 10 years. The last instance was in August 2022 in the Hula Valley and Golan Heights, where the Yonatan station recorded 10.4 mm. For Jerusalem and the Dead Sea area, double-digit rainfall is an extremely rare, if not unprecedented, event.
Weekend Forecast
Relatively cool air and moisture in the middle layers of the atmosphere will arrive from the direction of Greece, triggering rain in the east of the country. The affected areas span from the Golan Heights through the Jordan Valley, the Dead Sea, and the Judean Desert to the northern Arava. High-resolution models predict strong rain intensities, with a risk of flash floods in the wadis of the Jordan Valley, the Judean Desert, and the southern Dead Sea region.
It is highly probable that we are witnessing the initial effects of "Super El Niño," which is shifting weather systems globally. While some regions experience extreme heat waves, such as in Western Europe, others, including our region, Turkey, and Greece, are seeing the descent of cooler air.
Thursday will be clear to partly cloudy with a slight drop in temperatures, though it will remain warmer than average in the mountains and inland, with muggy conditions on the coast. Friday will see temperatures return to seasonal norms, providing relief from the recent heavy heat load. Morning drizzle is possible in the north and coastal plain, followed by light local rain in the north and central mountains in the afternoon. Saturday and Sunday will remain partly cloudy to clear with no significant temperature changes, featuring local rains and isolated thunderstorms, primarily in the east. The Meteorological Service will issue detailed updates as the situation evolves.
