The 1992 and 2019 scenario may return: The danger hovering over the Right
The Right is preparing for the three weeks remaining until the submission of party lists, as several parties and organizations compete for the votes of right-wing voters who are not willing to vote for Likud or Religious Zionism. Without a significant merger, the multitude of lists could leave parties below the electoral threshold and cost the right-wing bloc many votes.
With the conclusion of the Likud primaries, in the three weeks remaining until the submission of the lists, the Right faces the difficult task of organizing the camp's parties in the most efficient way. It is clear to everyone that the Right enjoys a cumulative demographic advantage, but poor internal organization could lead it to lose the election, especially against the Left bloc, which has already organized more or less.
The group of voters that will attract full attention in the next three weeks is those who hold right-wing positions, but for various reasons are not willing to vote for the Likud and Religious Zionism parties. This group has been known to all pollsters for a long time, and the debate is about exactly how many they are, and how many others might join them if a sufficiently attractive alternative is created for them.
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Two parties have already announced their candidacy: "HaAchdut" ("Unity") and "Zehut" ("Identity"). The "HaAchdut" party led by Gilad Erdan has already begun a campaign whose main criticism is directed at Likud. Even if the party does not rule out Benjamin Netanyahu, it makes it clear that it will not provide any bloc with the mandates missing to form a narrow government. The "Zehut" party led by Moshe Feiglin has already made it clear that it will run to the end, no matter what, which is exactly what worries the national camp.
Two other organizations have not yet officially announced their candidacy, but reports about them are increasing. One led by Ofer Winter and the other led by Amir Avivi. In both cases, it is still unclear who the other candidates are that are going with each of those organizations, and how attractive the lists will be to those undecided voters.
These four parties are not the whole picture. "Beit Tzioni" ("Zionist Home") of Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel does not identify itself as right-wing, but it has the potential to attract votes from what is commonly described as the soft Right. At the same time, there is some shift to the center by Benny Gantz. If the reports about various contacts with Ayelet Shaked are true, then it would be a certain shift to the right that also has the potential to attract votes from the Right.
On one thing there is agreement: in the event that all these organizations, or even just some of them, actually try to run independently, none of them will really pass the high electoral threshold. Without some significant merger between some of these parties, the Right may find itself in the 1992 and 2019 scenarios. In both cases, there was a majority of votes for the Right. In 1992, the fall of the Tehiya party below the electoral threshold created the blocking bloc for the Left. In 2019, the fall of the New Right created the tie and the frequent election rounds.
All party leaders know the data and the implications well. Therefore, it is likely that various contacts are being held in favor of uniting the ranks. But here the challenges are not simple at all. The challenge starts with the question of who will head the list and continues with the question of who will win ministerial positions if the list is in the coalition. No less complex is the question of assembling the list. None of the leaders of the new parties comes alone. How exactly do you assemble this "zipper"? After all, it is possible that some of the people on the lists arrived based on an expectation of a certain place, and not for the sake of a place at the end of the top ten in a list whose achievements and future are unclear.
Dealing with the challenges of assembling one list from a combination of several organizations will be done under several pressures: the growing public pressure to avoid harming the right-wing bloc, the pressure of low results in the polls, and the pressure of the Likud campaign not to waste votes. The leaders of these parties must remember that even assuming a 70% turnout, the electoral threshold will reach approximately 165,000 votes. An increase in participation rates could raise the threshold to 180,000 votes.
For those who find it hard to imagine: even if you collect all the eligible voters of Modiin, Shoham, Givat Shmuel, and Givatayim - you will not reach the electoral threshold.
Prof. Asher Cohen is an expert in political science.
