Washington's Hourglass: 3 Months to the Elections That Will Determine Trump's Future
Polls in the US indicate a Democratic advantage in the battle for the House of Representatives, while Republicans struggle to maintain a slim majority in the Senate. Against the backdrop of a drop in support for the president and an identity crisis in the Democratic Party, two races in Michigan and Texas may decide the fate of Congress. If Trump loses the majority and the left wing strengthens, votes against Israel will become a real threat. Commentary.
About three months before the US midterm elections to be held in November, the political picture is converging into a split scenario: Democrats have become favorites to retake the House of Representatives, but Republicans still hold a slim advantage in the Senate. Midterm elections traditionally function as a public referendum and a kind of "midterm exam" for the president's term — and they have the power to create a completely different dynamic in the second half of the term.
As of now, Donald Trump controls the House of Representatives, the Senate, and enjoys a clear conservative majority in the Supreme Court — dream conditions for advancing his agenda. However, the Republicans' nightmare scenario could turn him overnight into a "lame duck," with two full years left in the Oval Office: his legislative agenda will be halted, House committees will launch a large-scale investigation into the administration's conduct, and the Democratic Party is already openly talking about the possibility of opening impeachment proceedings — even if without a real ability to complete them in the Senate.
The wind in the US is currently blowing to the left, but the reason for this is not renewed enthusiasm for the Democratic brand, but mainly the president's weakness. Only 35% of Americans are satisfied with Donald Trump's performance, compared to 63% who are dissatisfied. The cost of living remains the central and burning issue for 45% of respondents, and the public now gives Democrats a clear advantage in handling this crisis — an arena where Republicans were traditionally strong.
Moreover, the MAGA brand has become a real burden. According to polls, 59% of independent voters say that identifying a candidate with Trump's movement will significantly reduce the chance they will vote for him. In response, Republican strategists are already formulating a new explanatory line: "Trump policy, less Trump" — focusing on core issues like border security, crime, and taxes, and intentionally reducing joint appearances with the president.
Despite some decline from the peak recorded in May, the data is well reflected in the polls, which give a principled advantage to the Democrats. The Decision Desk HQ model now gives them a 61% chance of taking control of the House of Representatives, and 43% in the Senate — an arena that should be more comfortable for Republicans. A year and a half of a turbulent term — which included the imposition of global tariffs in the spring of 2025, the Epstein files storm in the fall, the Maduro capture operation in the winter, and finally the war with Iran and its impact on the economy — have left the president at an unprecedented low.
The Battle for Congress
Despite the encouraging data for them, a Democratic turnaround is not certain. In the House of Representatives, Democrats need a few victories to take control of the house, but the task is harder than it seems. During the last year, Republicans — with Trump's direct encouragement — initiated a redistricting move ("gerrymandering") that gave them a practical advantage of about eight seats, thanks to the way the districts were drawn so that they would remain "red."
The main battlegrounds are now in the suburbs and swing districts. Democrats do have more potential targets to conquer, but they also have less room for error: if the Democratic trend erodes, it may be enough to keep control in Trump's hands.
The Senate is a much harder story for the Democratic Party. Republicans currently have an advantage of 53 seats to 47, and since Vice President J.D. Vance will decide any 50-50 tie, Democrats need an addition of at least four seats. The task requires them not only to defend their hold on blue states, but also to conquer seats in states where Trump won by a double-digit margin two years ago.
Michigan and Texas as a Case Study for a Deep Crisis
Among the states defined as close, two races well illustrate the central narratives of the elections: one presents the identity crisis of the Democratic Party, and the second the price Republicans are paying for their loyalty to Trump.
The first race is taking place in Michigan, a swing state that Trump won in 2024. In the Democratic primaries, Abdul El-Sayed — a progressive and declared anti-Israel candidate — won by a slim margin over moderate House member Haley Stevens. This victory raises the big question of the Democratic Party: does it belong to the moderate establishment, or to the progressive-socialist wing. Now El-Sayed will face the Republican Mike Rogers, who is supported by Trump, in a fateful battle for the majority in the Senate.
However, it is important to note that the Democratic Party is still looking for its identity. Alongside prominent victories for the left in Michigan, in Missouri a prominent progressive candidate lost to a representative of the moderate establishment, and in Washington a moderate candidate survived a challenge from the left. The voters themselves move between poles: 64% of independents support raising taxes on corporations and billionaires, and 60% support government health insurance — clear socialist positions — but at the same time, 43% admit that the label "democratic socialist" will reduce the chance they will vote for that candidate. The midterm test will serve as a watershed for the struggle over the party's image in 2028: will pragmatism return power, as moderate governors like Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro argue, or is a rigid progressive and anti-Israel line capable of bringing victory.
The second and dramatic race is being held in Texas, where a Democratic senator has not been elected for about four decades. Last May, Attorney General Ken Paxton, who received Trump's backing, won the primaries against veteran Senator John Cornyn. It was a nationwide campaign by the president to oust Republicans who are not disciplined enough for him. Now Paxton — who drags behind him a bag of legal troubles — will face Democratic House member James Talarico, who is already leading him in the polls by a small margin. A Republican loss in Texas may turn out to be an especially expensive political mistake, which will present Trump as a heavy electoral burden.
Israel's Hour of Testing
For the State of Israel, the results of the midterm elections and the future image of Congress may be a watershed. A scenario in which Trump loses the House and Senate, and at the same time the progressive wave in the Democratic Party proves itself electorally, may change the rules of the game. Worrying votes against aid to Israel — which have already been recorded more than once during the current term — could turn from a declarative step into a tangible and real danger to the country's security.
Dr. Yoel Guzansky is the head of the regional arena at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and a former senior official in the National Security Council.
