The Saudi dream exploded: This is how Israel lost the biggest deal in history

Last week, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states held quiet contacts in Washington to promote the IMEC trade corridor ("The Peace Corridor"). The project, originally intended to connect India to Europe via Haifa as a catalyst for normalization, has changed its face since the outbreak of the war and expanded into a multi-disciplinary framework that includes cyber infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and undersea data cables.

The technological and economic "peace train" continues to speed forward, but on a track that completely bypasses Israel. The immense damage to the local economy is estimated in the billions. Apparently, it was the war that eliminated the chances of normalization with Riyadh, but the reality on the ground is much more complex; it turns out that even at the height of the fighting, a political outline was formulated intended to allow this historic agreement to come to fruition.

If so, what led to the collapse of the move? To what extent does Saudi Arabia really need economic cooperation with us, has the arrogant Israeli perception already taken a heavy toll on trade relations with countries in the region, and how is Israel perceived in Saudi eyes?

"Saudi Arabia saw Israel as a role model and a key player in ensuring regional stability," says Dr. Michal Yaari, an orientalist from Ben-Gurion University and an expert at 'Ha-Katedra' at the Eretz Israel Museum. "This is thanks to its determined struggle against destabilizing organizations, such as Iran and various jihadist organizations. Furthermore, Israel's advanced technological and military developments contribute directly to establishing security in the entire region, because they allow Israel to fight not only against its enemies, but against the enemies of the pragmatic Arab world. From Saudi Arabia's perspective, security stability is the most important thing, because without it, it is impossible to promote Vision 2030 and significant economic projects."

We went to a war of no choice in Gaza after a terrible massacre. How did we still turn in the eyes of the Saudis from a country fighting for its right to exist into a negative regional factor?

"According to Saudi Arabia's method, Israel is committing a massacre against the Palestinians. In addition, Israel is perceived as someone who uses the war in the region to promote goals that are not related to the security of the State of Israel, such as Jewish settlement in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria. As a result, the Saudi perception of Israel has changed over the last 3 years: Israel has turned from a stabilizing factor, which one aspires to cooperate with, into a destabilizing factor — a kind of 'neighborhood bully' that competes with Iran over who causes more damage to Arab countries. This process began with the war in Gaza, and the Israeli attack on Iran only intensified it, since those who were harmed most of all by the Iranian response to the Israeli-American attack are the Arab countries."

Does Saudi Arabia need Israeli money? What is the great profit that will grow for the Saudis from normalization with Israel?

"For Saudi Arabia, the great contribution of the Abraham Accords is not the economic aspect. Its central goal in the agreement with Israel is the strengthening of regional stability. At the present time, the Abraham Accords cannot exist because of the lack of flexibility on the Saudi and Israeli side. At the same time, it is not impossible that even if there is no progress towards normalization, both countries continue to cooperate at the security and strategic level. Bottom line, Riyadh and Jerusalem share a common interest: harming radical elements and emphasizing cooperation as a lever for developing the economy."

What is Vision 2030, and where does Israel enter this picture?

"Vision 2030 is a national plan launched by Saudi Arabia in 2016, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, to reduce the kingdom's dependence on oil, diversify sources of economic growth, and establish Saudi Arabia as a regional and global center for investments, technology, tourism, and advanced services. From Israel's perspective, the meaning is mainly potential for indirect or direct cooperation in the fields of cyber, water, agriculture, and more."

How unique is Israel in what it offers the Saudis? Is there someone who will provide it to them instead?

"I don't think Israel is looking for 'Saudi money.' It strives for cooperation in a variety of fields. One must remember that the advantages for Israel are enormous not only because of the size of the Saudi market, but because it can allow Israel to create ties with other countries that currently do not conduct relations with Israel, such as Indonesia."

Is the image and political damage vis-à-vis Saudi and regional public opinion reversible? Is it just a 'small blow to the wing' for the Crown Prince that can be fixed if Israel changes direction?

"It is definitely not a 'small blow to the wing,' but a tragic and very dangerous event for Israel. If once it was still possible to convince the Arab world and Saudi Arabia of the importance of relations with us, today Israel is a pariah state — even in places that once showed a desire for a connection. The perception today is that Israel acts with great cruelty towards the Palestinians and promotes destructive policies in other Arab countries. In light of this, there is currently no feasibility for a change in attitude towards us."

But Donald Trump set a clear condition: a civilian nuclear agreement in exchange for Saudi joining the Abraham Accords. What are the conditions that must be met so that Saudi Arabia really enters such an agreement with us?

"The Saudis are not willing to enter into normalization with Israel without agreement, even if partial, on a political horizon regarding the Palestinian issue. This is a primary, central condition, and it constitutes the bottom threshold of the negotiations. So at the moment, there is no feasibility for the progress of the move."