The public is moving right, but the coalition is weakening: The mystery of the lost mandates

The election campaign is only just beginning, but the picture emerging at the headquarters of all parties is identical: while the public after the war has moved to the right, the coalition bloc, representing the right-wing parties, is gradually weakening. This dissonance keeps Benjamin Netanyahu and the other leaders of the right-wing parties awake at night, and serves as fertile ground for hope for everyone else. This picture presents a clear reality in which there are between 15 and 25 mandates of right-wing voters, of all kinds, who at this stage are not willing to vote for any of the three existing right-wing parties: Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit.

The prevailing assessment is that if the situation remains static, and only the existing parties remain until the finish line, these votes will be divided. It is not yet clear how. Some will return to the original parties in the right-wing bloc. Others will migrate to the 'disguised' parties on the other side. This reality leads to the fact that as of today, the polls published in the media have almost no value. Too many people with too many doubts. This does not give a stable picture, but rather chaos and disinformation.

The shift to the right of the public in Israel following the events of the massacre and the war is reflected in three main planes: tradition and Judaism, a rigid security perception and zero tolerance for the Arab enemy, and sympathy for the settlement movement in Judea and Samaria and the rejection of handing over territories for agreements. If there were 68 mandates in the current Knesset who believed in these values even before October 7, then today, according to estimates, there should have been over 70, perhaps even 75 mandates that moved to this side. In the polls, as mentioned, the trend is the opposite. In the most favorable poll, by Momo Filber on Channel 14, these parties receive 62 mandates. For others, much less than that.

In recent weeks, all parties, from all camps, have sent their pollsters to analyze the gap. Who are these right-wingers, old and new, who stubbornly refuse, as of now, to express support for the current government parties? What deters them and how can they be drawn into their fold? The findings are not very surprising, but unequivocal: the composition of the Likud list, and the alliance with the Haredim. Also on the margins: anger at the government that the October 7 disaster occurred on its watch, failure to deal with the cost of living, disappointment with the failure of the judicial reform, and more.

A direct and clear line connects these findings, which, as mentioned, everyone sees and gazes upon every week in the deep polls, to the parties' campaign and their main messages in recent weeks. In the opposition — a firm and militant line, trying to flank the government from the right and demand victory and decisive action. As well as attacking the government for the connection with the Haredim and promises of mass conscription of Haredim into the IDF. In doing so, the parties of Gadi Eizenkot, Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, and Benny Gantz are trying to provide an answer to at least two of the three values important to right-wingers.

However, regarding the third value — Jewish tradition — which also entails the desire to change the judicial system, meaning that it too will change its character to be more Jewish and traditional — these parties have remained without a real answer, or none at all. Here and there Lieberman throws in a sentence about his wife being religious and that he has a national-religious headquarters in the party, and Eizenkot tries to strengthen the Moroccan element, but at least as of now, it is a weak and not very credible answer. Their hope is that the other two things will catch on strongly enough to bridge the gap among right-wing voters who will be drawn to them despite the glaring lack.

But what is good for a campaign is not necessarily good for reality. Despite the supportive media envelope, and the attempt to hide and blur evidence, each of them: Eizenkot, Bennett, Yair Lapid, and Lieberman, fell into hard leftism in real time. Despite the new image he is trying to promote for himself, Eizenkot was and remains a man of surrender and agreements. A devout supporter of the two-state solution. One of the fathers of the concept of reducing the IDF and rejecting friction and striving for contact, both in his years as a senior military man and thereafter.

Today Eizenkot demands the IDF remain in the Gaza Strip until the dismantling of Hamas is ensured, but in real time, and even after — in the days when he did not think the right would be a target audience for him — he boasted that he was the first to push for withdrawal, ending the war, and leaving Hamas rule in Gaza. He even resigned from the government after Netanyahu refused to carry out the hostage deal that included a full withdrawal to the line of settlements, just like before October 7, when half of Gaza, including Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor, had not been conquered at all, and Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh, and Mohammed Deif ruled the Strip with an iron hand.

Also Lieberman, considered the right-winger of the group, promoted for years, even while sitting in right-wing governments, his plan to hand over territories for the establishment of an Arab state on the lands of the Land of Israel. In his famous plan, not only were large parts of Judea and Samaria to be handed over to the Arabs, but even Umm al-Fahm and the Wadi Ara settlements. Bennett still tried at the beginning of the road to present himself as a right-winger, and he has some receipts in the field, but the joining with Lapid destroyed any chance of attracting a right-wing audience, and in doing so he actually did the work himself for everyone else, who no longer had to convince anyone that he is not, which freed up their resources to deal with others.

Not only past statements stand in the way of the group of 'disguised' ones, but also their plans for the future. Mainly the expected joining with the Democrats of Yair Golan and the Ra'am of Mansour Abbas. Lieberman, for example, expressed his great frustration during an interview this week in which he said that the bloc could win, but only on the condition that Yair Golan would be silent. He did not attack the chairman of the Democrats and did not clarify that he would never sit with him because of his policy. But only begged him to stop disturbing him and his friends to complete the disguise. To stop constantly tearing it off their faces and allow them to continue the work of deception without disturbing.

Will Winter save?

The planned joining of Yoav Segalovitz to Ra'am brought back to the forefront also the possibility, known in advance, of the radical Islamic party joining a left-wing government. For the 'day after' it is a brilliant move. What will whiten Abbas and the Shura Council better than a Jew, a Zionist, a former senior police officer, who will serve on its behalf as a minister? But for the time of the campaign it is nothing less than destructive. After all the denials regarding the intention to rely on an Arab party in the next government, it is a practical move of preparing the ground that cannot be interpreted otherwise than as a clear intention to further violate the promise.

In recent days, the right-wing parties in the coalition are targeting the exact same audience, but their answer is also far from perfect. Although in the matter of tradition, the Land of Israel, and security they have something to offer, but the glue with the Haredim will be very difficult to detach. Itamar Ben Gvir, by the way, does not have this problem, his party actually enjoys Haredi support and his supporters are mostly pro-Haredi and the conscription campaign does not speak to them. But Likud and Religious Zionism are in a serious problem in the field.

It is not for nothing that the Prime Minister is acting to try to dispel the impression that the Haredi factions are flesh and blood of the next coalition under his leadership, among other things through the firm message he conveyed this week that in the next government anyone who does not study in a yeshiva — will be arrested, according to the law he intends to promote. It is not certain how many of the Haredi opponents on the right will buy this message, and it is likely that not many will be convinced that Netanyahu will succeed in conscripting Haredim when his government depends on Shas and United Torah Judaism.

Within all these, a third possibility has emerged. That the solution to the predicament is not found in any of the existing parties, but in a new party, which must necessarily be composed of right-wingers, which will provide an answer to all the undecided right-wingers, in all areas, including Haredi conscription, and who were outside the system on October 7. Netanyahu would like such a party, but fears the high electoral threshold. On one hand, it has a high potential to absorb the lost votes from the right, and on the other hand, it could waste several mandates. Just like what happened to Meretz in the last elections. Or to Naftali Bennett in the 2019 elections, round A.

Beyond passing the electoral threshold, the commitment to the bloc of that potential party is also important to the Prime Minister. That its members will be such that see value in the right-wing government under his leadership and will not go head-to-head like for a hopeless struggle or refusal to unite even at the cost of losing votes.

Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein, for example, are really not there. It is likely that during the campaign they will refuse to conduct any dialogue with him and his people regarding retirement, unification, or any move that will come to the conclusion that it will serve the right-wing bloc. Even after the elections, in case they pass the electoral threshold, the two could create difficulties in forming the government, demand to add other parties from the left-wing bloc, remove the Haredim, and perhaps even more than that. They are indeed right-wingers, but their motives are personal. Against him. Otherwise they would run in Likud.

An exception in the landscape is Ofer Winter. A distinct right-winger. A man of security and the Land of Israel. Faithful to tradition to the point of being marked and labeled as an enemy of the people when he dared to insert words of prayer into the combat order to the Givati soldiers in Operation Protective Edge. Winter did not demand to withdraw from Gaza in exchange for a hostage deal like Eizenkot, Bennett, and Lieberman, and in addition to all these is an enthusiastic supporter of conscripting Haredim into the IDF.

Unlike the 'disguised' of the opposition, who attack the government but protect each other, Winter has no problem doing both. This week he went out at 120 km/h against the Minister of Defense for his words in the 'Patriots' program where he announced the successor of the Central Command Major General Avi Blut, Dado Bar Khalifa, in a live broadcast. Not that he surrendered to the false campaign that there was a dismissal on air, but in his opinion, even an announcement of a successor is inappropriate.

The event reminded him of the past. Only a few years ago he stood in the exact same situation, when the Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi stood on his hind legs to prevent him from serving as the military secretary of the Prime Minister. For a year Netanyahu tried to fight the Chief of Staff's opposition, but finally was forced to give up and appoint Roman Gofman in his place. Not a week had passed since Halevi, together with Yoav Gallant, managed to torpedo the appointment, until a headline in the newspaper announced his retirement from the IDF. Not only the Minister of Defense, but also the Prime Minister was attacked by Winter this week regarding the emerging arrangement in Gaza.

But one should not be mistaken about Winter. He has nothing to do with the opposition people, not with Eizenkot and not with Bennett and Lieberman, whom he served as military secretary when they were Ministers of Defense. Winter does not want them with a hand on the steering wheel of leadership and does not trust a word of theirs. This week he sharply attacked Eizenkot and called him a leftist. About Lieberman he said: "He is a right-winger, but proved that he would be willing to do anything to prevent a right-wing government, including sitting with Ra'am and the Shura Council, just to throw Netanyahu and the right-wing government out of power. The campaign of Yisrael Beiteinu talks about decisiveness, but it is not clear how — with Yair Golan who opposes pioneers on farms and believes that security passes through the two-state plan? Lieberman needs to explain how he intends to defeat Hamas and the Arab enemy, ensure the settlement in Judea and Samaria, and fulfill everything he promises, when he gives the political left more than one hand on the steering wheel of power".

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Wants and will be

Between political and security consultations and dozens of fateful decisions that were placed before him in the last week, including two cabinet meetings and incessant talks with the Americans and the Peace Council in Gaza, Netanyahu is increasingly burying his hand and head in what is happening within Likud, which began to rustle and roar as the picture of the primaries becomes clearer.

Netanyahu understands that besides the issue of conscription and the connection with the Haredim, the composition of the Likud list also has enormous meaning. That unlike the delusional group of extremists of the Democrats, which includes a lawyer who represents terrorists and raises funds for the Arabs of the hostile Palestinian town of Huwara, he will not have even one day of grace after presenting the list, and that the media will do everything to make it repulsive and point out its shortcomings.

Therefore he demanded, and received, eight 'armorings'. An enormous and unprecedented number that will give him room for maneuver for corrections if necessary. Therefore, upon his return from the USA, he began to enter with all his might into the matters of procedures, petitions, the district clause that was approved by a narrow majority, and he will not let go until he achieves everything he wants. Meanwhile, the two clauses he wanted — he received. Armorings and the primaries regulations. But not only them.

During the contacts to bring those clauses to the approval of the party conference, he managed to dismantle what could have been the strongest deal in Likud in the upcoming internal elections — David Bitan and Haim Katz. From a joint negotiation with both, the Prime Minister chose to work only with Katz and leave Bitan out of the picture. Bitan was furious and raged, but in the end lost. In the district clause, indeed only by 5 votes, but in the two clauses that were really important to him, Netanyahu defeated him by an enormous majority.

The vote and the appeal on the clause of the vote of MKs in the districts escalated the rivalry within Likud, when Bitan was forced to mark not only Netanyahu as a rival, but also Katz. The 'divide and conquer' succeeded beyond expectations. Within all these, Netanyahu managed to recruit all the senior members of the party to support his proposals at the conference. Even Tali Gotliv supported his two important proposals, and came out against the district proposal that was important at all for Haim Katz.

The Minister of Defense, the Speaker of the Knesset, Yariv Levin, and the rest of the senior ministers issued support videos for the Prime Minister's proposals, which clarified to all the members that in Likud there is one owner. By the way, at least for Israel Katz it already paid off. Some of Netanyahu's associates pressured him to attack the Minister of Defense for what was perceived as the dismissal of Major General Blut in a live broadcast. In the past, Netanyahu would not have missed an opportunity to show muscle against Katz, especially when it comes to defending a Major General in the IDF who is excellently implementing the government's policy regarding settlement in Judea and Samaria, but this time Netanyahu refused.

After many years when the winning axis in Likud lay in the pockets of the Katzes, Haim and Israel, in the last elections the paths of the two parted, which led, among other things, to the decline of Israel who was pushed out of the top ten. The recent events brought the two closer, and according to what is emerging in the upcoming primaries, they will act to restore the crown to its former glory. The alliance with Netanyahu, including the decision to send the party's legal advisor Ilan Bombach to fight for the district clause in the District Court, strengthened the status of Haim Katz, while the high position serves well politically the status of Israel. Their close joining will lead to the re-establishment of the strong axis in Likud, at least until the next confrontation with Netanyahu, which may bring, again, the 'divide and conquer' method to the forefront.