The next front explodes: Yemen launches an offensive against the Houthis
After days of Houthi attacks and 17 soldiers killed, the Yemeni army has launched a counter-offensive. Fighting in Marib and Hadhramaut is intensifying, and in the shadow of the regional conflict with Iran, there is growing fear of the collapse of the ceasefire and a return to full-scale civil war.
The Yemeni government, recognized by the international community, announced that its forces launched a counter-offensive on Saturday against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. This follows long days of relentless attacks by the rebels on Yemeni army positions. According to a report in the "New York Times," the current escalation constitutes the most severe wave of fighting recently, one that threatens to drag the fractured country back into the abyss of a full-scale civil war.
The escalation in Yemen does not occur in a vacuum. It reflects how the stability of the entire Middle East currently hangs in the balance on several parallel fronts. Despite a temporary lull in direct fighting between the USA and Iran, the entire region is waiting anxiously to see if a final agreement will be reached for the reopening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a step that could prevent another round of fighting. Officials in Tehran published a series of demands over the weekend for the opening of the critical waterway, and made it clear that Washington must meet these conditions in full.
The Yemeni army's counter-offensive comes following a rapid escalation that began several days ago, when the Houthis attacked military targets in the provinces of Marib and Hadhramaut, areas rich in oil and gas. At least 17 Yemeni soldiers were killed in these attacks. The violence continued into the weekend, with reports of Houthi attacks aimed at residential neighborhoods and a large camp for displaced persons on the outskirts of the city of Marib.
These attacks claimed the lives of two civilians and left 14 wounded, including children, according to sources in the Yemeni government. In response, the Yemeni army spokesman, Colonel Majed al-Nuzeili, stated that his forces "carried out military activity against terrorist elements" of the Houthi militia in several locations, but refrained from providing further details.
The civil war in Yemen has been raging since 2014, the year the Houthis, with Tehran's support, took over the capital, Sana'a. The intervention of a military coalition led by Saudi Arabia a year later ultimately failed in its mission to uproot the Houthis from power. Since then, Yemen has effectively been divided into two de-facto states. Now, experts fear that the fragile ceasefire reached in 2022 has completely collapsed. The continued advance of the Houthis toward the eastern regions threatens to cut off the government's economic lifeline and trigger an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.
According to the report, the fighting in Yemen takes on a much broader significance against the backdrop of the war that the USA and Israel launched against Iran at the end of last February. This extensive confrontation has pushed Tehran's allies in the region to carry out their own attacks. Last month, the Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, parallel to the blockade that Iran had already imposed on the Strait of Hormuz.
Farea al-Muslimi, a Yemen expert from the Chatham House research institute in London, estimates that the Houthis are expected to escalate their attacks:
"They have proven that they are much stronger there, and can make everyone bleed at a relatively low cost, while causing enormous damage."
