Gas price jumps to 8.25 shekels — expert warns: this is not the end
Or Poriya, Chairman of Poriya Finance, points to the combination of geopolitical tension, pressure in the bond market, and expected interest rate decisions, warning: despite optimism in the AI sector, market volatility is expected to rise sharply.
Global and local financial markets are currently facing a series of opposing forces acting in parallel, which may lead to a spike in volatility in the short term. Or Poriya, Chairman of Poriya Finance, analyzed the current situation and identified the factors that will determine the direction of trading in the near future.
Poriya notes that the geopolitical arena has heated up following the American attack and the Iranian response, a development that sent oil prices up by about 2%. Poriya warns that if the tension continues and leads to further increases in energy prices, it will act as a negative factor directly weighing on global stock markets.
In the debt arena, Poriya explains that the hawkish tone presented by the Federal Reserve Chairman and the determination shown in the fight against inflation have renewed pressure on bond prices, with an emphasis on short-term instruments. This shifts attention to the upcoming interest rate decisions in Israel and the USA.
Regarding the Bank of Israel, Poriya believes that, contrary to prevailing market estimates, the Governor may choose to leave the interest rate unchanged this week, despite the decline in inflation. According to him, geopolitical instability and the global interest rate environment will tip the scales. At the same time, in the USA, Poriya estimates that the probability of an interest rate hike — for the first time in over three years — has increased.
On the other hand, Poriya points to a significant bright spot coming from the technology sector. The strong financial reports of chip giant Nvidia, alongside signals of continued significant demand in the coming years, have dispelled some of the concerns surrounding the growth rate in the AI sector and returned optimism to investors.
With the end of the summer vacation and the gradual return of investors to full activity, Poriya states that the "silly season" in the markets is coming to an end. The combination of geopolitical tension, volatility in the bond market, developments in the AI sector, and the upcoming interest rate decisions is expected to lead to an increase in standard deviations and heightened volatility in the markets in the coming days.
