Iran's Proxy Plan: Making the War as Expensive as Possible for Trump
Since the collapse of the ceasefire, Iran has intensified proxy attacks to destabilize the region. The strategy aims to pressure Washington and increase the economic cost of the war for President Donald Trump.
Since the ceasefire collapsed, Iran has begun attacking US allies in the region with increasing frequency, often through its proxies. In recent days, the war has spread to a wider circle in the Middle East, including Egypt, as Iran and its proxies attempt to destabilize global markets and pressure Washington to stop the campaign against the Islamic Republic.
According to two Iranian officials who spoke with the New York Times, the attacks are part of a phased plan secretly formulated during the ceasefire. The plan was to activate Iran's proxies to escalate attacks if the US increased its strikes. The goal, according to the officials, was to make the war as expensive as possible for President Donald Trump.
Senior commanders from the Quds Force—the branch of the Revolutionary Guards responsible for cultivating proxies—held online conference calls with commanders of Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shiite militias in Iraq. Quds Force commanders and their advisors have been operating alongside these proxies on the ground, while the Revolutionary Guards attempt to fill the void created within the ranks of Hezbollah, which was hit hard in the war with Israel, while simultaneously operating in Iraq from bases run by Shiite militias.
This week, the US and Saudi Arabia jointly attacked the militias in Iraq. Iranian media published photos of four dead, all dressed in the green uniforms characteristic of the Quds Force, with their coffins draped in the Iranian flag. Despite the heavy blows Iran's proxies have suffered since October 2023, recent developments have proven that they still have the ability to reorganize, cause chaos, and provide Iran with leverage.
Experts note that each Iranian proxy has a different level of autonomy. The Houthis are considered the most independent, Hezbollah coordinates its activities with Iran most closely, and the Shiite militias in Iraq fall in the middle in terms of their willingness to serve as a direct arm of Iran. The attacks were designed to avoid a direct confrontation with American or Israeli forces, which could lead to a harsh response against Iran.
Tehran's strategy is intended to limit oil exports from the region, raise fuel prices in the US ahead of the midterm elections, and reduce the revenues of Washington's Arab allies. Tehran estimates that significant economic damage might make its neighbors more open to its ambition to control traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Since Saudi Arabia's oil exports through Hormuz were largely halted, the kingdom began transporting a large portion of its oil via a pipeline crossing its territory, exporting it by sea through the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Consequently, the Houthis announced a naval blockade against the Saudis on July 20. Subsequently, the strategic Suez Canal also entered the circle of threats when UAVs hit tankers in Egypt. Iran has denied responsibility for the attack.
Ideologically, Iran built its network of proxies around two main goals: helping to push the American military out of the region and inflicting damage on Israel, while using the militias as a shield against direct attacks on Iran. None of these strategies have fully succeeded, especially after the fall of Bashar Assad and the weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah.
