The radical core that took over Iran
Six months into the war, a hard core of generals and clerics has formed in Iran, declaring they are prepared for a prolonged conflict. The younger Khamenei, who has yet to appear in public, has surrounded himself with veteran allies and returned those who previously led the suppression of protests to senior positions. Trump promised "regime change" and got extremists: this is what the new leadership looks like.
US President Donald Trump ordered a war against Iran six months ago, promising it would be short and crushing. But now, under severe sanctions, the leadership of Iran that was eliminated has been replaced by a hard core of generals and clerics who have deep roots in the theocratic regime. They declare again and again that they are prepared for a prolonged confrontation with the US — while they are ready to do everything to prevent any domestic uprising. All this is very far from Trump's hope at the beginning of the campaign to topple the Islamic Republic, and from the claims he made later that "regime change" brought more moderate elements to the forefront who were more willing to compromise.
The new leaders in Tehran show little confidence in their ability to reach any agreement with Trump — after Iran was attacked twice while conducting talks with the US — and may be attacked again once the Americans replenish their stocks of interceptor missiles. The Iranians have even threatened to escalate the war, while the ongoing American siege and Trump's plans to impose new sanctions threaten to choke Iran's economy, which is already in a worsening state.
"If Trump wants to do something, we will respond with tremendous force," said Mohsen Rezaei, who was an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and was appointed earlier this month as Secretary of the country's Supreme National Security Council, late last week. In a post he published on X, he wrote that "if the economic war continues, not a drop of oil will be exported" from the Persian Gulf.
In a statement published this morning in Iranian state media, the Iranian government promised to stand firm against American sanctions and what it called American-Israeli "conspiracies," and claimed that diplomacy and defense are "complementary, coordinated, and inseparable" tools for protecting the country's national interests, its security, and its territorial integrity. The Iranian government claimed it would act on both tracks simultaneously and focus on curbing inflation, creating jobs, supporting local production, and gradually reducing dependence on the dollar.
Rezaei's appointment was part of a series of decrees signed recently by the Supreme Leader, who has not been seen in public since his father was eliminated, and in which Iran's new senior leadership was officially determined, including senior military officials — after their predecessors were eliminated at the beginning of the war. Perhaps the most significant appointment is that of the commander of the Basij — the volunteer force of the Revolutionary Guards, which imposes fear on the streets and played a central role in suppressing the wave of protests that erupted across the country last January, during which tens of thousands were killed.
Appointed to the position was Hossein Taeb, a conservative cleric who was the head of the Revolutionary Guards' intelligence organization and led one of the first major suppression operations against protests in 2009 — until he was dismissed in June 2022, following the exposure of an Iranian plot to carry out an attack against Israeli targets in Turkey. His appointment is seen as a sign that the leadership is determined to prevent a renewed outbreak of unrest, against the backdrop of spreading dissatisfaction with the economic situation.
The 56-year-old Khamenei has not been seen in public, as mentioned, and has not appeared in videos or been heard in recordings since his father's death in the Israeli strikes — who served as Iran's Supreme Leader for about 37 years. The assessment is that the younger Khamenei was wounded, and his absence from the public sphere may indicate the high level of security around him, as it is likely he is in Israel's crosshairs, or the severity of his injuries. Meanwhile, he is surrounding himself with extremist allies.
In appointments announced on August 11 and 12, Khamenei surrounded himself with veteran allies with whom he had collaborated in the past. "They are a clique of senior and older officers who have served together in recent decades," explained Sasha Brokhman, an analyst at the Middle East office of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, in a conversation with AP. Rezaei, 71, headed the Revolutionary Guards during the years they were formed, throughout the Iran-Iraq war from 1980-1988 and until 1997. Since 2009, he has run for president several times as a candidate from the more extremist line.
Ahmad Vahidi, 68, was appointed to the position of commander of the Revolutionary Guards, where he had served as acting commander since his predecessor was eliminated alongside the elder Khamenei. In addition, in recent months, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards' Navy, General Ali Ozmai, and the Chief of Staff Ali Abdallahi were appointed. Brokhman, who noted that Rezaei had been Vahidi's commander for many years, said it seems the emphasis now in the appointments is to ensure unity. "It looks like internal cohesion, in the sense that people from the hard core are being brought into the inner circle," he explained.
The senior oil analyst at the company Kpler, which provides data to international markets, explained that the appointments of Vahidi and Rezaei indicate "greater influence of factors identified with a harder position." However, the analyst added, escalation is not inevitable, and Iran might find it difficult "to escalate to a degree sufficient to restore deterrence, without triggering a backlash that would leave it in a worse situation."
President Masoud Pezeshkian is one of the prominent voices still calling for a solution through negotiations. His allies argue that Iran risks stretching the rope too far by continuing the war while its economy collapses. "It would be better to bring the war to an end, as today we enjoy strength and respect, and the whole world has recognized our victory, while the US is hated," Pezeshkian said last week. He also defended the memorandum of understanding signed in June against accusations from extremists who claimed that Iran had conceded too many conditions in it.
Unlike the ultra-extremist line, which rejects any possibility of talks, Rezaei actually left a door open for the possibility of an agreement — if the US retreats from its position. On Monday, he told Pakistani Chief of Staff Asim Munir, who serves as a mediator, that the US must "change its approach and take practical steps to implement the conditions" of the ceasefire agreement. A political analyst operating in Tehran named Ahmad Zeidabadi wrote in a newspaper associated with Pezeshkian that there are "significant gaps regarding the way the country should move in the future." The extremists oppose normalization with the US because "their survival depends on the existence of confrontation and hostility."
Despite the hopes in the US — and also in Israel — so far there have been no signs of new protests, while it is becoming increasingly difficult for Iranians to purchase basic products. Taeb's appointment as commander of the Basij is a sign that the leadership is interested in preventing any possible uprising in advance, "even before it happens at all," Brokhman told AP. "It makes sense to put a person who comes from an intelligence background at the head of the force that is supposed to carry out the suppression," he said.
Taeb, a 63-year-old cleric, headed the Basij during the period when the force played a central role in suppressing the mass demonstrations that erupted against the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009, when dozens were killed. He created an image of a ruthless person, and shortly thereafter Taeb was appointed head of the Revolutionary Guards' intelligence apparatus. He headed the organization for almost 13 years, until he was dismissed in 2022, according to reports as part of an organizational shake-up that came following Israeli successes in the field of espionage.
The Basij operates a nationwide network of volunteers who maintain a presence on the streets, in government offices, and in cultural centers, with the goal of ensuring loyalty and ideological purity to the Iranian theocracy. In Taeb's appointment decree, the younger Khamenei ordered him to deepen the Basij's presence in Iranian social life, use new technologies, and "expand the Basij's activity around the world against Zionist-American arrogance" — which indicates that the organization may begin to create ties with Iran's proxies outside the country.
The Basij has increased its presence during the war, and hardliners have held rallies every night in Tehran and other cities to mobilize support and deter anyone who might express opposition. It is not exactly clear how Taeb will increase his power, but in a recent speech he hinted that he intends to tighten control over society even further. He warned that American pressure on the economy is intended to create division within Iran. "If the mosque becomes the center of the neighborhood, the nation will maintain its unity, and that will be a greater means of deterrence than any missile."
