The Middle East is changing - and Saudi Arabia has moved to play a different game | Dr. Eitan Lasry
Saudi Arabia is building strategic independence: a defense alliance with Turkey and Pakistan, ties with Washington, and open channels with Iran and China. For Israel, the meaning is clear: Riyadh is no longer dependent on one axis.
The Middle East has entered a new era, and Saudi Arabia is not waiting for the United States, and certainly not for Israel, to decide what its security and economic future will look like. The Kingdom's foreign and security policy is currently guided by one central principle: absolute protection of its economic stability and the goals of the ambitious "Vision 2030" program.
In light of the regional war against Iran and its proxies, Riyadh has formulated a decentralized defense strategy, a "play on the whole field" doctrine. Saudi Arabia no longer relies on a single security pillar, but is maneuvering simultaneously between nuclear agreements with Washington, Muslim defense alliances, tactical dialogue with Tehran, and active fighting against regional proxies.
The regional emergency axis: the alliance with Turkey and Pakistan
The lack of complete trust in the stability of the traditional American defense umbrella led Riyadh to its most dramatic deterrence move in the last decade: the "Mecca Triple Defense Agreement" signed between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. This agreement establishes a collective defense principle in the style of NATO, where an armed attack on one of the three countries is considered an attack against all.
While it is too early to determine how this commitment will be activated, the connection between these three Sunni powers offers a strategic division of roles: Saudi Arabia provides capital, Turkey brings advanced defense industry and drone production, and Pakistan contributes a highly experienced army and nuclear deterrence. For Israel, the Turkish component is particularly worrying, as the combination of Saudi capital and Turkish industry creates a new power center that cannot be ignored.
The international axis: Washington and civil nuclear power
The United States remains a key strategic partner, but the nature of the alliance has shifted from exclusive dependence to a tough partnership of interests. The Trump administration's approval of the "123 Agreement" for civil nuclear power, granting Saudi Arabia independent uranium enrichment capabilities for 30 years, provides the Kingdom with strategic maneuvering space. Simultaneously, Riyadh maintains open channels with China and Russia to ensure energy market stability.
The Iranian arena and the proxy front: diplomacy under fire
Saudi Arabia is operating a "Double-Tracking" policy: active military response, including secret Air Force operations and leading a 14-nation naval coalition to protect the Red Sea, alongside diplomatic negotiations with Tehran to prevent economic collapse. Intra-Gulf relations remain complex, as security solidarity against Iranian threats is balanced by intense competition between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over influence in Yemen and control of trade ports.
The Israeli connection: the gap between the open and the secret
While Israel is mired in fighting, Saudi Arabia has hardened its public positions, conditioning normalization on progress toward a two-state solution. However, secret cooperation continues: the Saudi need for Israeli defense, cyber, and AI technologies remains critical.
The "Mecca Agreement" is not a declaration of war on Israel, but a declaration of Saudi strategic independence. Israel must move from a reactive policy to a strategic initiative: deepening secret cooperation, managing a strict dialogue with Washington regarding Saudi nuclear limitations, and providing irreplaceable technological value. In the new Middle East, those who do not shape alliances find themselves managed by them.
