Hezbollah has not given up the struggle: The challenge awaiting beyond the ceasefire
The organization has weakened since October 7, but has not changed its worldview and has not stopped regrouping. Negotiations with Lebanon are an opportunity, but Israel must not ignore the reality on the ground. Human dynamics: an elegant solution to the current problem creates a new problem the next day.
The difficult incident on Wednesday afternoon in the village of Majdal Zoun took a heavy toll. Lessons will certainly be learned in an effort to prevent the recurrence of such events, but despite the ceasefire, the basic situation in southern Lebanon is prone to failures of this kind — like the chance of heatwave days in the months of July-August.
Hezbollah may have been hit and weakened since October 2023, but it has not for a moment abandoned its commitment to the command of 'al-Muqawama' — the resistance. For it, this is a starting point of identity that is not subject to negotiation, being a religious command. This is what leader Naim Qassem aimed at in his speech this week, on the occasion of the fortieth day marking the death of Imam Hussein in the Battle of Karbala. He promised that the organization would continue to dedicate itself to the path of struggle, which will eventually lead to a full withdrawal of the IDF from all Lebanese soil, with humiliation similar to that which accompanied the withdrawal in May 2000.
This is the essence of the dispute between the path led by President Aoun, together with the Lebanese government, to hold peace talks with Israel — with the promise that this path will lead to the withdrawal of the IDF, and the path of resistance, which strongly criticizes the negotiations out of the belief that only the continuation of fighting will lead to the withdrawal of the IDF.
It is desirable for the State of Israel not to lose the unprecedented breakthrough created in the series of direct meetings with representatives of the Lebanese government, under American guidance. This opportunity has positive potential, but at the same time, one must maintain a realistic view regarding the processes forming within Hezbollah.
Almost half a year after the renewed outbreak of fighting within the framework of 'Lion's Roar', Hezbollah's adherence to the path of struggle with Israel has not only not weakened, but has even intensified. It is supported by the network of ties to Iran, which has also strengthened in the circumstances that have developed. These ties have intensified in the material dimension, in the political dimension, and in the spiritual dimension.
In the material dimension, despite the difficulties created with the establishment of the Al-Shara regime in Damascus, Iranian efforts have been renewed to transfer weapon components from Iraq through Syria to Lebanon. In the political dimension, Iran's efforts to link the ceasefire with the USA together with the ceasefire on the Lebanese front — even if they did not achieve all expectations — expressed the depth of the partnership between Iran and Hezbollah. In the spiritual dimension, the firm stance of the Iranian leadership against the power of the USA provides a faith-based inspiration for all loyalists of the idea of resistance.
Under these conditions, even if actual steps are implemented by the Lebanese government and the Lebanese army to disarm Hezbollah, the situation is similar to an effort to empty a swimming pool when it continues to fill from the other side at a higher rate.
What is so difficult for the American mediators to understand — both regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah and regarding the disarmament of Hamas — is the endless elusiveness and creative cunning of the resistance organizations.
In a human way, and not necessarily out of malicious motives, all parties involved in disarmament efforts have a distinct urge to prove success in the mission. The desire is to finish the mission and return home in peace. Therefore, the Lebanese army, the mediators, and the American inspectors all have a good reason to present showcases of success in disarmament, while ignoring everything that continues to exist in the hidden dimension.
This is how the Russians and the Assad army also acted in the fight against the rebels in Daraa and southern Syria. In an agreement that saved fighting until the last bullet, they preferred to transfer the rebel organizations to northern Syria, to Idlib, where these forces regrouped with Turkish support. From there, they set out in December 2024 for the decisive move to topple the Assad regime.
This is the human dynamic: an elegant solution to the current problem creates a new problem the next day.
Hezbollah and Iran are currently discovering a fascinating expression of flexible strategic thinking. Hezbollah recognizes the failure of the war idea with which they entered October 2023, and with adaptive creativity, they are working these days on creating a new war idea, backed by innovative weaponry, including drones and UAVs.
Under these conditions, the State of Israel needs to act on two channels in parallel: on one hand, to sincerely continue the negotiation efforts with the Lebanese government, and on the other hand, to prepare, with a new and unfixed view, for the possibility of another war with Hezbollah.
