Trump's Great Crash: The Dramatic Data Arriving at the Most Dangerous Time
The name "Trump" will not appear on the ballot this time, but the midterm elections will be a referendum on his presidency. Less than 3 months before the vote, the president is facing a sharp erosion among independent voters, a distancing of Hispanics, and disappointment even within the Republican camp - in the shadow of the war in Iran and the cost of living: "He is not doing what he promised, why should we vote for him?"
Donald Trump will not be running in the elections to be held in the USA on November 3. His name will not appear on the ballots, and he will remain in the White House even on the day after them. And yet, in many ways, these will be his elections: less than two years after returning to the presidency with a victory that significantly expanded the boundaries of the Republican Party, Americans will decide in the midterm elections whether Trump will continue to enjoy a friendly Congress - or spend the last two years of his term facing a House of Representatives, and perhaps also a Senate, under Democratic control.
For the Republicans, the problem begins with the fact that the coalition that gave Trump the victory in 2024 was broader than the core of the traditional MAGA ("Make America Great Again") movement. He dramatically improved his standing among Hispanic voters, young people, and the working class, while simultaneously managing to attract voters who did not see themselves as loyal Republicans. According to an analysis by Pew, 48% of Hispanic voters supported Trump in 2024, compared to 36% in 2020. The improvement was particularly sharp among Hispanic men and voters without an academic degree.
As Trump now tries to "take over" the elections in the US, some of these groups are showing clear signs of distancing. Not all are disappointed for the same reasons: for many Hispanics, the economy is at the center; among independent voters, it is a combination of the cost of living, the war, and general dissatisfaction with the president; and within the Republican Party itself, the gap between loyal MAGA supporters and more moderate Republicans is sharpening. But from the perspective of a Republican candidate who wants to be elected to Congress, the reason is less important than the result: some of the people who helped Trump win in 2024 are not in the same place today. And this is happening exactly at the moment when the Republicans need them.
Over all this erosion sits, of course, the war in Iran, which for Trump has turned from a national security issue into a political and economic problem at home. Trump returned to the presidency after promising to fight the cost of living and avoid prolonged wars. The campaign in Iran, however, has been going on for nearly half a year, has damaged oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, and has contributed to a rise in fuel prices - one of the prices that the American voter feels most immediately. The combination of the war and energy prices is weighing on both households and the Republicans who are trying to maintain their majority in Congress.
A Reuters and Ipsos poll published this week found that Trump's approval rating has dropped to 33%, the lowest of his current term, while 64% are dissatisfied with his performance. 80% of Americans believe that American involvement in Iran will last a long time - including 71% of Republicans. Only one in five Americans believes the war was worth the price. In the Economist/YouGov poll, the picture is no less difficult: 57% said that going to war was a wrong decision and only 25% said it was right. 65% want Washington to reach an agreement that will end it as quickly as possible - a position held even by 48% of Republicans. And among independent voters, the pessimism is particularly deep: 61% of them estimate that the war will last at least another year.
What exactly is being chosen in the midterm elections?
The midterm elections take place in the middle of the president's four-year term, so there are no presidential elections, but all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election. A member of the House of Representatives serves only two years and represents a specific electoral district, so every even year the entire House is re-elected. This is not a national vote where the percentage of votes for each party is translated into a number of seats, as the United States is divided into 435 congressional districts, and each district elects one representative. Therefore, a party can win the majority of the national vote and still not win the majority of seats - and what really decides is who wins in the few districts where both parties are competitive.
To control the House of Representatives, 218 out of 435 seats are usually needed, and currently, the Republicans hold it with a narrow majority - so even a small shift in public opinion can transfer control to the Democrats. The fear of losing the majority in the House is one of the main concerns in the party ahead of November, as if the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives, they will be able to block or delay White House legislation, control committees, open investigations, and summon senior officials to testify, and generally make Trump's agenda difficult until the end of his term.
The Senate works differently. Each of the 50 states has two senators, regardless of its population size, and each is elected for six years. The seats are divided into groups, so every two years only about a third of the Senate is up for election. In November, 33 of the regular seats will be up for election, alongside special elections for additional seats. According to the official composition of the Senate, the Republicans have 53 senators, the Democrats 45, and two independents - Bernie Sanders and Angus King - who effectively belong to the Democratic bloc. This means that the Democratic camp effectively has 47 votes, and therefore needs four more seats to reach 51 and control the Senate without depending on the tie-breaking vote of the Vice President. If the Republicans lose the majority in the Senate, it will be harder for Trump, among other things, to promote appointments of senior officials and judges.
