The Brigadier General who warns Israel against the North Korean model: "We will not be a super-Sparta"

The dependence of the State of Israel on the United States is not a new phenomenon, but it seems that in the recent period it has taken a troubling turn. In an interview with our commentator Ron Ben-Yishai at the National Security Conference of ynet and "Yedioth Ahronoth" in collaboration with the INSS, Brigadier General (res.) Assaf Orion analyzed Israel's strategic situation.

Orion, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and former head of the Strategic Division in the Planning Directorate of the IDF, said that the central change is the transition from broad institutional dependence on the US to personal dependence on the president himself.

"The more dependent we are, the more the future of this support is undermined. We saw this when President Donald Trump forced ceasefires, dictated the terms of arrangements, and informed us what the terms of the memorandum with Iran and the nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia were. There is an element of strategic independence here where we have gone backward," he explained.

On the danger of this dependence, Orion noted:

"The question is whether this connection is a thread or a rope. When you depend on a single person, on the length of his term, and on his agenda — especially a president who adopts an unpredictable style — this could mean the abandonment of broad support in the administration, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. Israel cannot afford to be dependent on one thing. It must look at the situation with a systemic and long-term view."

"Giving up on Europe is a luxury"

The strategic crisis does not stop at the borders of the United States. In Europe, public opinion challenges not only Israel's right to defend itself, but sometimes the very legitimacy of its existence. Orion explained that since October 7, Israel has been in a "continuous trauma," which leads to a deep mutual misunderstanding between it and the world.

"In Israel, we are in a place where we are right, and therefore it is hard for us to hear criticism that is not immediately perceived as antisemitism. It is very easy for us to say: 'If you don't stand by my side — you are Iran or Hamas.' Doing destruction is easy, but building a reputation and relationships takes a long time. We must reposition ourselves in the family of nations. Europe is our main trading partner. The tendency to say 'Europe is lost and is under Islamic occupation' is a luxury that Israel cannot afford."

The limitations of Israeli power

The long war has also raised the issue of IDF munitions and dependence on foreign supply. Orion asks to cool the enthusiasm of those calling for a transition to completely independent production.

"A long war tests the amount of resources. This war would not have been possible without the American weapons depot." He mentioned the statement of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to which Israel should be a "super-Sparta" and produce everything by itself. "One must look at the size of the country. It is impossible to adopt a North Korean model where we will eat olives and pita and we will have a glorious military industry — that is not what will buy us independence. The worst thing than fighting with allies, as Churchill said, is fighting without them."

The way out

Orion outlines a clear action plan to restore Israel's status:

Re-examination of the security concept: to check whether managing a "frontal, incessant war without political solutions" is indeed the right way.
Managing the campaign: moving to a less intensive campaign that takes into account the attrition of the IDF, the economy, and the international situation.
Restoring relations with the US: strengthening the alliance as a "supporting wall" in Israel's security.
Diversification of alliances: strengthening other supports in the world and avoiding "burning bridges" with other countries.
Changing the approach to Washington: "Do not ask what the US can do for you, but what you can do for the US. Israel must examine how it contributes with its innovation and economy to the US struggle for technological dominance in the world."