The Beginning of a Regional Nuclear Arms Race

"No nuclear agreement stands on its own; it must serve in the long term the security of Israel and our commitment to preventing nuclear proliferation in the Middle East," determined former President Joe Biden in 2022, thereby reaffirming the position of the USA that links the promotion of a civil nuclear project on Saudi soil in exchange for normalization with Israel. These are concepts cast in the heart of the establishment in Washington that cannot be repaired following — in the words of Shlomo Artzi — "weather changes."

And here, the president of high and low tides, Donald Trump, rushes to change the world order and grant the Crown Prince his pinkest dream, a bilateral civil nuclear agreement. All this, while avoiding linking it to a long line of fundamental conditions: Saudi accession to an enhanced IAEA inspection mechanism ("the Additional Protocol") and a commitment to forgo self-enrichment on its soil, and absolute American control over the process even after the expiration of the initial agreement period (a matter known as a "black box"). In addition, it seems that the agreement does not formally link the dowry to the Abraham Accords, but only in a public reference by the president.

The change in US policy in the Donald Trump era on such a sensitive and complex issue fits well with the efforts of Mohammed bin Salman to create at this time a separation between two tracks: on the one hand, receiving advanced nuclear technology unconditionally, and on the other hand, a discourse on normalization — which is linked in the eyes of the Saudis to the establishment of a Palestinian state. This is emerging as another Middle Eastern farce that Donald Trump may leave us after he leaves, while the effort to repair the damage will be complex, painful, and prolonged.

But our troubles do not end here. The emerging Saudi nuclear agreement joins a long list of regional challenges left behind by "Mr. Different League," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As in other performances signed by his outgoing government, the cumulative damages of this agreement are long-term and combined.

And yet, the lack of open Israeli criticism of the agreement is disturbing and raises questions regarding the capacity of Israeli influence on US policy. Beyond that, the agreement proves again to the countries of the region that the road to Washington no longer passes through Jerusalem, a process expected to accelerate after the midterm elections to Congress and the breaking of the Democratic Party into problematic directions. In particular, not linking civil nuclear energy to normalization weakens the Israeli opening position for dialogue with its neighbors for a renewed engagement on the Palestinian issue in the post-October 7 era, and this is bad news for those who seek to reshape and reframe the boundaries of the discourse on the issue and the need to remove the Palestinian state option from the international agenda at this stage.

If there is a chance to stop the agreement, it depends on the interpretation that will be given in Washington to the commitment to the Saudis and whether Congressional approval is required here. On the face of it, Donald Trump will likely prefer a restrictive interpretation that does not require Capitol approval. Either way, the legacy of Benjamin Netanyahu in a long line of arenas is crystallizing into a catastrophe. We could have received the Saudi civil nuclear energy at the price of normalization. Although there were not insignificant costs to this, at least the return was significant and strategic: now we are left with a broken trough.

Similarly, loosening the reins on access to nuclear technology without supervision opens a regional Pandora's box. When Riyadh breaks the nuclear barrier, the other key players in the space — Egypt, Turkey, and certainly Iran, which will prefer to remove masks — will not sit idly by. A nuclear arms race in the Middle East is no longer a theoretical scenario, but a direct result of impulsive and short-sighted leadership here and across the sea. Leadership that may, in the final stretch of its term, harm the security of Israel.