Bitcoin Plunges 50% from Peak: Analysts Divided on Market Outlook
Having lost nearly half its value since the October peak, Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential trend reversal. While some analysts see a bottom forming, others warn of further declines to below $40,000.
Bitcoin is currently showing the most encouraging signs yet that the world's largest digital currency is approaching a "floor" after months of persistent weakness. This is the interpretation of some of the most prominent technical analysts on Wall Street who monitor chart behavior.
The figures illustrate the steep path from the peak. After hitting a high of approximately $126,000 in October, Bitcoin has shed about 50% of its value. For nearly two months, it has fluctuated in the $60,000 range, having fallen below $70,000 in early June. Consequently, those who bought at the peak currently hold an asset worth about half of their initial investment.
Ari Wald, a technical analyst at Oppenheimer, has not been among the optimists recently. In fact, the currency's surge toward $83,000 in May appeared to him as a prime opportunity to reduce exposure before another wave of weakness. However, the price has since stabilized above $58,000, after erasing about 60% of the gains from the major rally recorded between 2022 and 2025. According to Wald, this behavior is characteristic of bottom-building.
The primary evidence he points to is technical: downward momentum is weakening. The weekly RSI index, which measures the speed of price movement, shows a "positive divergence"—meaning the price is still falling, but the intensity of the decline is decreasing. "This is the most constructive evidence of a developing bottom we have seen so far," Wald wrote to his clients. He adds a caveat, however: it is possible we will see one final leg down, similar to the events of the last quarter of 2022, before the trend truly reverses.
The line everyone is watching is the 200-day moving average, currently around $72,000. As long as Bitcoin trades below this level, it is difficult to speak of a real upward trend. Reed Harvey of Wolfe Research reminds us that the currency has failed to cross this line since November. He estimates that the current recovery toward $65,000 could stall and reverse into another decline—a scenario that has repeated itself several times this year.
Harvey adheres to a well-known theory in the crypto market: Bitcoin moves in a four-year cycle consisting of three years of growth followed by one year of decline. If this map is accurate, he estimates, the true bottom might not arrive until October, potentially dropping below $40,000—a significant gap from the current market price.
Conversely, Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies leans toward a more optimistic interpretation. One of the momentum indicators she follows began to improve just as Bitcoin fell to a new low, suggesting that selling pressure is moderating. "Bitcoin's cyclical downtrend appears to be maturing," she wrote, adding that long-term oversold conditions suggest a base-building phase has likely begun.
For those holding crypto or considering entering the market, the divide among experts is clear. The optimistic camp sees a market stabilizing after a sharp drop, while the cautious side warns that a true bottom may be distant and that a further decline of tens of percentage points is not an imaginary scenario.
For the Israeli investor, whose exposure to crypto is growing—whether directly or through ETFs—this serves as an important reminder: technical analysis is a tool, not a promise. It identifies trends but does not guarantee them. Even if a bottom is currently being built, the path forward may be volatile, and no one knows for certain if the low is behind us or still ahead.
