Pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar Warns of Fragile Knesset Mandates Days Before Vote
With four days until the Knesset elections, pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar warns that mandate projections remain extremely fragile, noting that marginal parties crossing the electoral threshold could alter the balance between political blocs.
With just four days until the Knesset elections, Dr. Menachem Lazar, CEO of Lazar Research and pollster for Maariv, has highlighted the extreme fragility of current polling data. He explained how a difference of just a handful of respondents could determine whether marginal parties cross the electoral threshold.
Speaking on 103fm with Ron Koppelman and Aryeh Eldad, Lazar addressed fluctuating parties, expected voter turnout, and the persistent challenge of pollsters: respondents who conceal their true voting intentions. According to the latest Maariv poll, the joint list of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelecha is barely crossing the threshold with four mandates, while Ofer Winter’s party remains outside the Knesset.
"This will change the map of the blocs," Lazar explained. "In the last poll, when Ofer Winter failed to pass, there was a slight tilt toward the opposition bloc. If both pass, we are looking at a sort of tie." He recalled the 2022 elections, where Meretz failed to cross the threshold, ultimately shifting the final political outcome.
The Margin of Four Respondents
One of the most revealing moments of the interview came when Lazar detailed the methodology behind modern polling and how narrow the gap is between entering parliament and political oblivion.
An average poll contains about 500 people, and ahead of elections, we scale up the sample. This specific survey was conducted with 1,043 respondents, including telephone oversampling in Arab and Haredi communities. Passing or not passing the threshold can literally come down to four people. That is how polling works.
While this small margin of respondents only reflects statistical representation in the sample rather than actual election day voters, it underscores the intense volatility surrounding parties lingering near the threshold.
Dealing with Deceptive Responses
Another critical issue raised was the reliability of survey data. Lazar was asked how pollsters identify participants who disguise their true positions.
"We can check reliability up to a certain point. Your demographic details should match what you state," he noted, adding that polling companies run cross-checks to flag anomalies or contradictory statements. If a respondent claims they once voted for Hadash and now intend to vote for Otzma Yehudit, the case is flagged for panel managers to investigate.
Voter Turnout and a War-Forged Generation
Beyond the threshold question, Lazar pointed to turnout as a notoriously difficult factor to gauge through standard polling. While acknowledging that surveys cannot accurately measure exact participation rates, he estimated that turnout might exceed the 70-71% recorded in previous elections, driven by high motivation among opposition voters and the Arab public.
Concluding the interview, Lazar addressed young voters, some of whom are casting ballots for the first time. While youth traditionally lean toward political extremes, he argued that this generation has matured rapidly through wartime realities, potentially altering conventional voting patterns.
