Saudi money, Pakistan's nuclear power and Turkey's ambitions: The new security alliance and the connection to Israel
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey have signed an agreement to establish a "Muslim NATO," and the Turkish Foreign Minister announced that Egypt may join later. The cooperation is expected to block the plan to move goods from India to Europe via Israel and the expansion of the Abraham Accords.
The campaign against Iran has led to unprecedented developments in the Middle East, including the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, the targeting of Gulf states, and the depletion of American defensive interceptors. A dramatic development with direct implications for Israel is the establishment of a defense alliance between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. What led to this move, what is the role of religion in the cooperation, and what does Israel have to offer in response?
The road to a "Muslim NATO"
One of the most prominent lessons from the war against Iran is the revelation of the Gulf states as "paper tigers." The Saudis avoided a counterattack and focused solely on defense, to the point that, according to the CSIS institute, they fired about 86% of their Patriot interceptors in the first 38 days of Operation Lion's Roar. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia brings with it immense economic power with a GDP of about $1.3 trillion — more than double that of the UAE. This vast capital is the central engine of the alliance.
Saudi money complements exactly what its new partner, Pakistan, lacks. Islamabad, for its part, presents what the Saudis and Turks lack entirely — nuclear deterrence. According to the Stockholm Institute (SIPRI), Pakistan possesses 170 nuclear warheads. Although this capability did not affect the Sindur operation last year against India, the Pakistani economy — whose GDP per capita is 20 times smaller than the Saudi one — needs cash from Riyadh to reduce the Indian advantage.
The third side of the triangle is Turkey, which provides industrial and technological capability. According to SIPRI, the market share of Turkish arms exports doubled from 0.9% to 1.8%, with Pakistan being the prominent customer with about 16% of the procurement. The Turkish industry also serves Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who purchased Bayraktar Akıncı UAVs from Ankara in a giant deal worth about $3.1 billion.
However, Ankara's joining the alliance is not driven solely by economic considerations. Erdogan, although he launched the local "Steel Dome" system, was embarrassed during Lion's Roar when Iranian missiles fired at his territory were intercepted by NATO — an event that raised questions regarding Turkish operational capability. Alongside this, the alliance may also serve Turkish nuclear ambitions. When Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz was asked on CNN TÜRK if Pakistan would contribute to the development of his country's nuclear knowledge, he replied that "in the field of security, there will be closer cooperation."
The normalization dream shelved?
Islamic motifs were prominent already at the signing ceremony held in Mecca and not in Riyadh, after which Crown Prince bin Salman, Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif prayed before the cameras. The religious framing is not coincidental. In this reality, normalization with Israel seems further away than at any stage since October 7, when the Saudi fear of Iran and the growing competition with the UAE were added to the Palestinian issue. In this situation, the vision of the IMEC corridor for moving goods from India to Europe that would also pass through Israel, and the Crown Prince's Vision 2030, currently seem disconnected from reality.
The Saudis are now maneuvering between the Iranian threat in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi siege in the Red Sea, with their oil export capacity at an unprecedented low. The distress in the Red Sea is what paves the way for expanding the alliance to Cairo as well, which is completely dependent on revenues from the Suez Canal, as a continuation of the easing of relations between Erdogan and President Sisi. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told the Anadolu Agency that Egypt is expected to join after "settling technical issues." He even declared that at the base of the alliance lies a mutual defense clause similar to Article 5 of NATO, and emphasized that "maritime security in the Red Sea is linked to our interests."
However, the Turkish declarations about a NATO-style mutual defense clause are received in Jerusalem with a much more sober analysis. Dr. Yoel Guzansky, who previously coordinated the handling of Iran and the Gulf at the National Security Council and currently serves as head of the Gulf program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), explains that the Israeli interest is for more countries to join the alliance, because every player adds more interests. However, he estimates that it is still an array with an anti-Israeli orientation.
According to Dr. Guzansky, "At the center of the alliance is Saudi Arabia, which is signaling to Israel that its actions have exceeded what the Saudis think is right. In the Saudi perception, Israel is running wild, Iran is more dangerous, and the US is hard to trust. The Saudis say that Trump's policy changes every day and even within the administration, the messages change. From their perspective, they are creating hedging with more capabilities and options, even if they are not optimal."
An alliance full of contradictions
Israel is not the only one identifying a threat in the new alliance. The move also raises deep concern in the UAE, in the Eastern Mediterranean against Greece and Cyprus, and especially in India, after Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif defined the alliance as a "unified Muslim front" against India and Israel. The definition turns local conflicts into global events, because a confrontation of Turkey against Greece in the Aegean Sea or against Cyprus could drag a nuclear Pakistan into the campaign.
However, beneath the declarations, the opposing economic interests surface an inherent absurdity. India purchased about 13% of Saudi oil exports in 2025, and it is doubtful that Riyadh could give up the Indian market in the event of a conflict between Pakistan and India. The economic difficulty of the Saudis is sharpened even more in light of Washington's data, according to which in July, US oil imports from Saudi Arabia stood at zero — for the first time since 1985.
The security and economic distress of the Saudis creates another paradox, when facing the Iranian threat, the kingdom relies precisely on Greece, Turkey's rival. A Greek Patriot battery stationed in Saudi territory performed critical interceptions for Mohammed bin Salman, including the interception of two Iranian ballistic missiles in March and two Houthi missiles in July towards oil infrastructure and refineries.
Alongside the threat, these internal contradictions give Israel an opportunity to leverage its technological and security advantage to build a regional counterweight. While Turkey is ranked 11th in the world in defense exports, Israel is ranked 7th. Israel's top client was India with 29% of exports, within which subsidiaries and joint ventures of Israeli industries operate.
The Israeli technological advantage was proven during Lion's Roar, which included sending Iron Dome systems to the UAE. In July, Greece signed a deal worth 3.5 billion euros to purchase David's Sling and SPYDER systems from Rafael and Barak MX from Israel Aerospace Industries. These moves establish Israel as a central axis in the opposing alliance. As the Director General of the Ministry of Defense, Maj. Gen. (res.) Amir Eshel said: "The war clarified to all parties in the region the price of Iranian buildup. It created a commonality of interests for forming a broader alliance — from India, through the UAE, to Greece and Cyprus."
