Ahead of the market opening: The stocks that will weigh on the stock exchange today
Dual-listed stocks return with a negative gap, as chip stocks are expected to fall before the big event on Wednesday. The local reporting season is in the final stretch with Phoenix, Menora, Harel, and Partner. What is expected today?
The trading day opens with expected pressure from the chip sector, at the start of a week that is entirely focused on one event: Nvidia's report on Wednesday.
Dual-listed stocks return this morning with a negative arbitrage gap of about 0.3%, which will weigh on the opening. The notable losers will be the chipmakers: Nova is expected to fall by about 4%, Camtek by 3%, and Tower by 1.5%. Enlight is also expected to fall by about 2%.
This pressure is a direct continuation of the difficult week experienced by the chip sector — Camtek fell 12.4% and Tower 10.5% last week — and reflects the nervousness ahead of Nvidia's report. Many investors prefer to reduce exposure to chips before the report, for fear that disappointment will drag the entire sector down. This is classic 'holding one's breath' behavior before a decisive event.
In fact, the entire week is focused on one report. Nvidia, the most valuable company in the world and the main barometer of AI trading, will report on Wednesday after the close in the USA. The results and guidance will determine whether the huge investments of the giants in artificial intelligence infrastructure are translating into real demand for chips.
For the local market, the implication is direct: a strong report could reignite the rally in Tower, Nova, and Camtek, while a disappointing report will deepen the correction. After seeing throughout the season that even excellent reports are not always enough when expectations are high, the bar for Nvidia is particularly high — and this is exactly what creates the nervousness in the sector.
In Tel Aviv, the reporting season is nearing its end with several prominent names. Three of the largest insurance companies — Phoenix, Menora, and Harel — will report this week, and it will be examined whether the strong jump in the insurance sector (which rose 5% last week) is justified.
Partner will also report and provide a picture of the communications market, alongside Tidhar in real estate and Fox in fashion retail. After the rally in insurance, it is worth following whether the reports will justify the pricing or lead to profit-taking — a pattern that has repeated itself throughout the season.
Beyond Nvidia and the local reports, two factors will accompany the trading. The first is the geopolitical arena: the tension with Iran and oil at around 90 dollars continue to be a volatile factor. The second is the bond market: the high yields in the USA (for 30-year bonds at a multi-year high) continue to put pressure on growth stocks.
The opening today is expected to be red for chips due to the dual-listed stocks, but the broad picture depends mainly on Nvidia on Wednesday.
For the Israeli saver, this is a week where it is especially worth keeping a cool head: chips are volatile before the report, and the temptation to 'time' the event — to buy or sell before it — is exactly the kind of move that usually does harm. No one knows for sure what Nvidia will show or how the market will react, so trying to guess the result is a gamble, not an investment.
