"The Mecca Agreement": A true alliance against Iran or just lip service?

On August 7, 2026, the "Mecca Agreement for Joint Defense" was signed between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. The agreement was signed by Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The treaty explicitly states that any armed attack on one of the three countries will be considered an attack on all of them. The agreement also deals with the development of security cooperation in all areas: training, exchange of expertise, defense industries, and increasing readiness.

First of all, it should be noted that this agreement is intended to protect only Saudi Arabia against Iran, the Houthis, and the Iraqi militias. It is a sectarian agreement of Sunni states against Shiite or pro-Shiite elements. However, in the Arab media, facts are distorted, and illusions are spread that the agreement is intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any aggression on the Gulf states. Arab commentators believe that the presence of Pakistan (a nuclear state) and Turkey (a NATO member with an advanced defense industry) strengthens collective deterrence.

Past experience: will such agreements succeed in protecting Saudi Arabia?

Qatar has already had a defense agreement with Turkey for years, including a Turkish military base on its soil. However, when Israel bombed Doha or when the Iranians fired missiles at Qatar, Ankara did not send brigades or enter a war. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has had a full mutual defense agreement with Pakistan since September 2025. When Iran fired missiles and UAVs at Saudi oil and military facilities, Pakistan sent only a few planes and soldiers just for show. Ties between Pakistan and Iran remain excellent and were not affected by this.

Now, after bilateral agreements have proven their value mainly as a PR tool, all three have announced a tripartite alliance. If we listen to the three new partners, they emphasize that the agreement is not directed against any country, does not create a military or sectarian front, and is not related to an arms race. However, the truth is different: the agreement is directed against Iran and the Houthis, and it is indeed perceived as a Sunni Islamic NATO against Iran and the Shiite axis.

What do the Arabs think?

Arabs define the agreement as extremely important, claiming it will lead to security and stability in the region. They argue that it does not raise tensions and does not come at the expense of Saudi Arabia's strategic relations with the Gulf states. Turkish President Erdogan called the agreement a historic step based on the principle of collective deterrence, noting that it is open to the accession of other countries aspiring to peace and stability.

And what do the Iranians say?

Iranians know very well that this agreement is directed against them. While there is no detailed official statement from the Supreme Leader yet, the general tone from Tehran is one of disdain for its effectiveness and criticism of Saudi dependence on external alliances. Iranian MP Ebrahim Rezaei called the agreement a "paper agreement" that will not bring security, just as "years of one-sided dependence on the Americans" failed to do so. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called for Muslim unity and self-reliance, emphasizing independence from Western influence.

In conclusion, the first test of this agreement will be when the Houthis or Iraqi militias attack Saudi Arabia. The assessment is that there will be no military response from Turkey or Pakistan, only condemnations in the media. Experience shows that all of this is just PR and muscle-flexing.