The voice is the voice of Al-Sharaa, and the hands are the hands of Erdogan

There were days when Israel had a free hand to act in Syria as it pleased against any threat — immediate and real or future, with full backing and support from the United States, which even encouraged and pushed Israel more than once to act against common enemies on Syrian soil. Thus, for example, Israel acted over the last decade, when Syria was still ruled by Bashar Assad, against Iran's attempts to establish a military foothold in that country and to transfer weapons through it to the Hezbollah organization in Lebanon.

When the Assad regime fell, Israel took advantage of the twilight hour when chaos reigned in Syria even before Abu Muhammad al-Julani entered the gates of Damascus, and attacked and destroyed military capabilities held by the Assad regime so they would not fall into unwanted hands, whether Hezbollah or the jihadist rebels led by al-Julani. This concerned, for example, the Syrian air defense system, which was the densest in the world and constituted an obstacle on Israel's path to act against targets east of Syria, towards Iran. In addition, Israel took control of a buffer zone on the border between the two countries, a lesson from the events of October 7.

In the first months of al-Julani's rule in Damascus, or in the new mantle he donned and under his new-old name, Ahmad al-Sharaa, Israel continued to attack and destroy military capabilities that still remained from the Bashar Assad era. It mobilized to assist the Druze in their struggle against the new Syrian regime, and, no less importantly, in light of the fear that Turkey was about to replace Iran as the landlord in the neighboring country, Israel attacked every site regarding which it was reported that Turkish forces were about to be deployed.

However, the days when Israel enjoyed full freedom of action in Syria have passed forever. Al-Sharaa has become a darling of the West, and President Trump also reached the conclusion, with the help of Turkey and Qatar, that al-Sharaa is the right man in the right place and there is no one more suitable to rule Syria and promote American interests there. US-Turkey relations have also improved miraculously under Trump, who again defines Erdogan as a dear friend and an ally more loyal than any other.

The inevitable result was the narrowing of Israel's space of action in Syria. The Americans intervened and blocked Israel's activity for the sake of the Druze population and forced a fragile ceasefire on all parties.

Currently — there is no fear of escalation

It was reported the day before yesterday that Israel attacked again in Syria, and this time the Abu al-Duhur airport in the Idlib province in the north of the country, where Turkish forces were about to be deployed. In Israel, they claimed that the attack was coordinated with the US, but the American envoy to Syria and ambassador to Ankara, Tom Bark, hurried to condemn the attack and warn against the deterioration and escalation it might lead to.

In an interesting timing, the Syrians announced yesterday that they hold in their hands materials remaining from the nuclear reactor that Bashar Assad built and which we attacked and destroyed in September 2007. According to the Syrians, they intend to continue holding these materials, and even use them for developing nuclear capability for civilian purposes. It seems this statement was made in coordination with the Americans, and in any case, it should be assumed that Syria will do whatever the US asks or orders it to.

Turkey is not Iran, and al-Sharaa is not Bashar Assad. They are rivals of Israel and must be watched closely, but the tension with them has a glass ceiling — Trump's USA. For we are all — the Syrians, Israel, and the Turks — sitting at Trump's table and usually follow his dictates.

The tension will continue, and so will Israel's actions on Syrian soil, but there is currently no fear of escalation, which no one wants — not in Ankara, not in Jerusalem, and not in Damascus.

The author is an expert on the Middle East and Africa and Deputy Rector at Tel Aviv University.