The war with Iran erodes American deterrence in Asia: "A gift to China"

The sharp confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea has illustrated the growing doubt among US allies in Asia regarding its ability to contain Beijing's expansion, while the American-Israeli war against Iran erodes Washington's military resources. According to The New York Times, countries in the region fear that the American shortage of weaponry and the focus on the Middle East will limit the US response in the event of a conflict with China.

The concerns were sharpened after the most serious confrontation in years at Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed territory in the South China Sea. The Philippines demonstrates its control over the site through soldiers stationed on the Sierra Madre, a World War II-era ship that was intentionally grounded. A ruling by an international tribunal about a decade ago supports Manila's position, but China does not recognize it.

Last month, a Chinese Coast Guard ship began circling the Sierra Madre. During the confrontation, Coast Guard personnel approached the Filipino soldiers in small boats and struck one of them with a wooden club, causing a head injury, according to American and Filipino officials. China accused the Philippines of a provocation that led to the incident.

The US Ambassador to the Philippines expressed outrage and stated that Washington stands with Manila, its oldest ally in Southeast Asia. However, The New York Times noted that there is no expectation that China will soon reduce its activities to expand its control in the region.

At the heart of the doubts is the erosion caused to the American military following the war with Iran. The United States is dealing with a shortage of essential weaponry, including air defense interceptors, after Iranian missile and drone attacks forced its forces to abandon bases in the Middle East and led to the destruction of facilities. According to the report, these developments provide Asian countries with an illustration of China's ability, whose military power is far greater than that of Iran, to strike American forces and bases in the event of a war in the region.

Simultaneously, Beijing continues to demonstrate its power. In early July, China conducted a rare test of an intercontinental ballistic missile with nuclear capability, which was launched from a nuclear submarine into the Pacific Ocean and carried a dummy warhead. Alongside this, the Donald Trump administration decided to close American consulates in Japan and Indonesia, according to Congressional officials briefed on the move.

Gregory Meeks, the senior Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that Donald Trump's second term has been so far "a massive failure for American interests in the Asia region." According to him, the administration's policy is "a gift to China, which harms the credibility of the United States and damages our national security."

The New York Times noted that the uncertainty is not limited to the military plane. Donald Trump's trade war, which also hit countries in Southeast Asia, illustrated to Washington's allies that the United States could also be an economic rival. Simultaneously, American administrations have failed in recent years to present the region with a broad economic vision that would compete with China, which remains the largest trading partner for many countries in the region.

"Southeast Asian countries do not want to be caught in a conflict between the powers, but they still want to feel that the United States is a healthy counterweight to China," said Mira Rapp-Hooper, a former member of the National Security Council in the Joe Biden administration. According to her, the feeling that the United States is becoming weaker as an alternative to Beijing has left a real impression on its partners.

The fear of an American retreat is also intensifying due to the rapprochement between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. During a summit in Beijing in May, Donald Trump expressed appreciation for Xi, and he is preparing to host him for a state visit in Washington at the end of September. According to the newspaper, Donald Trump's attempt to establish "G2" relations with China, a group of the two superpowers, undermines the bipartisan line that has formed in Washington over the last decade and sought to confront Beijing as a hostile rival.