The ice is melting: The UAE and Iran begin to draw closer

In Israel, first signs of a thaw between Abu Dhabi and Tehran are being identified, primarily the resumption of Flydubai and Emirates flights in Iranian airspace for the first time in months.

Diplomatic sources familiar with Israel-UAE relations say that the move stems primarily from Abu Dhabi's economic and pragmatic interests and does not indicate a distancing from Israel. According to them, in parallel with the gradual return to normalcy with Tehran, security cooperation between Israel and the UAE has "deepened very significantly" since the war against Iran.

The UAE and Iran are beginning to gradually return to functional normalization after months of confrontation and acute tension. Since the outbreak of the war, Emirati airlines have been forced to bypass Iranian airspace. Now, the resumption of its use provides one of the clearest signs of a change beginning to emerge in relations between the countries.

Sources familiar with Israel-UAE relations attribute significance to the resumption of flights that goes beyond the aviation aspect. According to them, commercial traffic in Iranian airspace cannot be resumed without Tehran's consent. They see this as another sign of the attempt by both countries to gradually restore the communication channels and routine that were damaged during the war.

According to the sources, in recent days, movement of Emirati presidential aircraft related to Iran has also been detected. In Israel, this is seen as another indication of contacts between Abu Dhabi and Tehran.

This development comes at a time when the confrontation between the UAE and Iran is still far from over. In less than a week, three vessels linked to ADNOC, Abu Dhabi's national oil company, were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE blamed Iran for the attacks and demanded that Tehran stop them and fully reopen the strategic shipping route. The advisor to the UAE President, Anwar Gargash, clarified that Abu Dhabi will defend its sovereignty and freedom of navigation, while continuing to prefer a diplomatic path.

The UAE has already paid a heavy price in the confrontation with Iran. Since the beginning of the war, the country has suffered barrages of Iranian missiles and UAVs, civilian and economic infrastructure has been damaged, and Dubai Airport and some of the country's air operations have been disrupted repeatedly. In early March, the possibility of taking active defensive measures against Iranian missile sites was even examined in Abu Dhabi, following hundreds of launches toward the country.

According to diplomatic sources, the UAE's immediate economic considerations require the return of aviation, tourism, and trade, and greater stability in the region. All these exist alongside the long-standing fear of the Iranian threat, which has not disappeared.

This is particularly evident in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital economic artery for Abu Dhabi. Even before the current escalation, a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the strait. The UAE repeatedly emphasizes that freedom of navigation in the strait is a national and regional interest of the highest order, and even defined Iranian attempts to disrupt traffic in it as a threat to regional stability and global energy security.

Tehran also has an interest in resuming activity. The war and the struggle over Hormuz disrupted shipping, increased transport costs, and damaged civil and commercial ties in the region. From the Iranian regime's perspective, the return of Emirati airlines to its airspace also provides the first sign that part of the regional disconnect created during the conflict is beginning to fade.

Despite the warming of ties between Abu Dhabi and Tehran, sources familiar with the relations do not identify a strategic change in the UAE's policy toward Israel. According to them, the war against Iran significantly deepened security cooperation between Jerusalem and Abu Dhabi. According to diplomatic sources, "the relations have deepened very significantly."

During the war, security cooperation reached an unprecedented level. Israel transferred an Iron Dome system to the UAE, and Israeli soldiers assisted in its operation against the Iranian threat, an exceptionally unusual step due to the sensitivity involved in the presence of an Israeli force on the soil of an Arab state. Military, intelligence, and political relations between the countries reached a level during the war that did not exist before, and a senior Emirati official even said that the Israeli assistance during the critical period "will not be forgotten."

Diplomatic sources clarified that the security infrastructure that was built did not disappear with the end of the main combat stages. The regional picture that occupies the UAE leadership is not limited to Iran. In Abu Dhabi, they are also watching with suspicion the changes in the balance of power within the Arab and Muslim world. Diplomatic sources say that the UAE is not satisfied with the new defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, which is perceived there as a strengthening of a regional axis that does not necessarily align with Emirati interests.

In Israel, it is estimated that this development also has an impact on how the UAE views its ties with Jerusalem and Washington. From Abu Dhabi's perspective, ties with Israel and the USA continue to be a strategic asset precisely at a time when the map of regional alliances is changing. At the same time, it is trying to reduce friction with Tehran and return some of the relations with it to a functional track. According to the informed sources, "we have not yet seen the last word."

If Iran returns to rapidly developing the military capabilities that threaten Israel and the Gulf states, the assessment in Israel is that Jerusalem will again be required to consider action.

The return of Emirati aircraft to Iranian skies is a first step in a cautious return to routine between Abu Dhabi and Tehran, after months of confrontation. The UAE seeks to resume civil and economic activity with Iran without harming the security ties that have deepened during this period with Israel and the USA. In Israel, it is estimated that the continuation of the trend will depend to a large extent on Iran's military and regional conduct in the coming months.