At a crossroads: The new Likud may push Netanyahu to a dramatic decision | Efraim Ganor
Even before the results are published, the Likud primaries may already shake up the political map. A list that is not to Netanyahu's liking, alongside worrying polls, could put the question of his future in the party back on the table.
These lines are written before the results of the Likud primaries were published — even before we received the picture of the party's new face after the difficult internal power struggles that accompanied it in recent months. And yet, it can be said with certainty that these primaries are a very important milestone. Not only for Likud, but also for the politics and future of the State of Israel. These primaries are supposed to change the "Bibism party," which still calls itself Likud, with the big question being, of course, what will be born from these internal elections.
Recently, it became clear that the intention to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as head of Likud and the government has already been on the agenda after the terrible disaster of October 7. This is contrary to the prevailing opinion, according to which no one would even dare to entertain this thought. And if there were already those who thought about it then, it is quite clear that the results of yesterday's primaries will have a great influence on Netanyahu and his future path.
Likud primaries (Photo: Mark Israel Sellem)
This may not be evident yet among most Likud voters, who have recently been busy up to their necks with the primaries, but the new right-wing currents, which are being fed into the election system by former Likud members like Gilad Erdan, Yuli Edelstein, Moshe Feiglin, and possibly also Moshe Kahlon and Yoav Gallant later on — all these are creating a new map of forces here.
It is very possible that Netanyahu will find himself today, on the morning after, in a difficult situation like he has never known — with a list of candidates who are not to his liking, to put it mildly. At the same time, from the polls published morning and evening, a clear picture is emerging, according to which Likud is far from any possibility of forming the next government. The combination of the polls with a list of candidates that is "problematic" from his point of view in Likud may lead Netanyahu to a dramatic decision to retire from political life even before the elections.
And if this happens, the struggle for the day after Netanyahu will only intensify and accelerate the disintegration of Likud. Those who may benefit from this situation are those new currents on the right, which will attract those disappointed by the Likud primaries. To some extent, Itamar Ben Gvir, Avigdor Lieberman, and even Gadi Eisenkot may also benefit from this situation — which will leave the "Bibist" Likud shattered.
