The climate crisis strikes: The heavy economic price of fires in Europe
Europe is experiencing its deadliest and most expensive fire season in history. With massive areas scorched and thousands evacuated, France and Spain are preparing emergency economic aid packages to mitigate the multibillion-euro impact.
The sky over the pastoral Bordeaux region in France is currently covered by clouds of smoke, spreading rapidly under the cover of strong winds and lightning strikes. According to the European Union's emergency commissioner, some of the fire hotspots in France and Spain were advancing at a speed of about 6.4 km/h — a pace much faster than the containment capability of ground firefighting teams, which is usually limited to 0.3 km/h. In Crete, massive fires led over the weekend to the evacuation of about 8,000 residents and tourists after a hotel, agricultural lands, and farms went up in flames.
While hundreds of firefighters are still struggling with the flames around Madrid, Avila, and Toledo, and while the south of France continues to evacuate tens of thousands of residents, it is now clear: the European Union will experience the deadliest and most expensive fire season in its history. According to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) of the Copernicus monitoring service, as of the end of July, about 1,200 fires have occurred on the continent, more than 2 times the annual average, with over 2,500 sq. km, the size of Luxembourg, having burned.
The main victim is Spain, where areas 6 times larger than in the same period last year have burned since the beginning of the year. In France, over 1,160 sq. km have burned, exceeding the previous record of 2022. The human toll is also heavy: at least 13 people have died in Spain, and in France, three firefighters and one other person have lost their lives. About 220,000 residents have already been evacuated from their homes in France, and about 100,000 in Spain.
According to estimates in Spain, the cost of firefighting operations since the beginning of the year reaches 1.72-3.28 billion euros — and this is even before the restoration of the areas. Past experience also points to the difficulty of insurance, which ultimately places a heavy burden on the state treasury. Thus, the 2025 fire season in Spain caused an estimated damage of about 5 billion euros, but insured payments were much lower than 1 billion euros. The reason: a significant part of the burned area is forest and rural land that is not insured or is excluded from regular property policies. In other words, the burden of restoration falls mostly on the public purse.
Now, Spain and France are already preparing to allocate economic aid packages while the fires are in full swing. According to a study by the University of Birmingham, regions in southern Europe affected by large fires experience a decrease of 0.11%-0.18% in annual growth, and in the hardest years, the cumulative impact reaches 3.3%-4.8%. In an average fire season, this is an annual output loss of 13-21 billion euros. The transport, hospitality, and catering sectors suffer from a decrease of 0.09%-0.15% in growth, equivalent to a loss of 5,700-9,600 jobs per season. In Spain, the Ministry of Labor has already formulated an emergency package under which the state will bear the wage and social security costs of employees who were prevented from reaching their workplace by the fires.
The current summer, it seems, will be the realization of scientists' predictions regarding the effects of climate change. As the atmosphere warms due to greenhouse gas emissions, it behaves like a giant sponge and draws moisture from the soil, vegetation, and water sources more rapidly, which creates ideal conditions for the spread of fires. In just the last two months, extreme heat waves have hit Western Europe and led to record temperatures, which, according to researchers from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) organization, would not have been possible without the effects of climate change originating from human activity.
The future may bring heavier and more frequent heat waves to the continent. According to the European Union's research center and the Copernicus service, in a warming scenario of 3 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, regions in southern Europe (Spain, Portugal, southern France, Italy, Greece) will experience an addition of 30-40 days of fire risk per year. About 63 million Europeans currently live in friction zones between open areas and settlements, which are exposed to fire risk. With a warming of 3 degrees Celsius, the figure is expected to jump by 24%, to 78 million people. The direct economic damage, currently estimated at about 2.4 billion euros per year, is expected to almost double, and in some areas in southern Europe, it could climb to 5%-10% of the GDP.
