Will China Arm Iran? Missile Deal Threatens US and Signals Shift in Beijing
Hundreds of man-portable air-defense systems may soon be sent from China to Iran, marking a dangerous shift in relations. Until now, Beijing has helped Tehran behind the scenes but avoided direct arms sales. What is behind this course change, what the missiles offer Iran, and the threat Donald Trump has already issued to Beijing: "It will be very bad for you."
US President Donald Trump has threatened that if Beijing or Moscow sell weapons to Tehran, it will have serious consequences. However, according to a Reuters report, China intends to transfer up to 400 man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) of its own production to Iran. If these systems reach Tehran, the deal will mark a departure from Beijing's cautious line. Until now, China has provided Iran with diplomatic backing and supplied dual-use components, but refrained from the direct sale of missiles and advanced weapon systems.
"If this is indeed the situation, there is definitely a change here in the trend we have known until now," says Yuval Weinreb, an expert on China and host of the podcast 'Understanding China', in a conversation with N12. According to him, the possible shift does not stem from a deep commitment of Beijing to the Iranian regime, but from Chinese interests, and above all — the rivalry with the USA. From the Chinese perspective, Iran is a force that undermines American dominance in the Middle East, and this serves their interests.
China's cautious line — and the line it did not cross
Despite the 25-year cooperation agreement signed in 2021, relations between the countries did not develop to the extent hoped for in Tehran. American sanctions deterred Chinese companies from extensive investments, and Beijing was careful not to jeopardize its more important ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf states.
However, China views Iran as a source of cheap energy, a large market for its goods, and a country that controls important trade routes for the Belt and Road Initiative. Thus, Beijing became the main customer for Iranian oil, with about 90% of it reaching China at a discounted price and via routes intended to obscure its origin and bypass sanctions.
Assistance to the Iranian military industry has also been transferred so far using a similar method: not through the direct sale of weapons but by supplying dual-use components that can be presented as civilian. One of them is sodium perchlorate, a precursor material for rocket engines that can also be used in the civilian industry. Thus, it helped Tehran while simultaneously maintaining room for denial.
The Chinese goal: to test the missiles against American tools
Iran's air defense systems were severely damaged in attacks by the US and Israel, which achieved air superiority and operated relatively freely against military facilities and strategic infrastructure. From Beijing's perspective, strengthening Iranian defense may make it difficult for the Americans and deepen their entanglement in the Middle East.
"Everything that hurts the US is probably a gain for China," says Weinreb. "The Chinese would be happy to see the Americans continue to get entangled in the Gulf, because that way their attention is directed there and not to Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region." Another reason may be the desire to test Chinese weapon systems against advanced American technology. According to Weinreb, China is monitoring the wars in Ukraine and Iran, and drawing lessons from the functioning of Western systems.
Up to 400 missiles for 70 million dollars
According to the Reuters report, the contract includes 300 to 400 man-portable air-defense systems of the QW-12 and FN-16 type, worth 60 to 70 million dollars. The first shipment is expected to arrive in Iran within weeks. The MANPADS are intended to hit helicopters, UAVs, and low-flying aircraft. They can be dispersed, operated in small teams, and moved quickly, and therefore are also harder to locate and destroy compared to stationary batteries.
According to the report, the arms shipments will be transferred first by air from Urumqi in western China and from there through Pakistan to Iran. "China has a land route to Iran through Pakistan, through which things can be transferred under the radar," says Weinreb.
Xi's promise and Trump's threat
Just a few days ago, Trump claimed that Xi Jinping promised him not to sell weapons to Iran. "Given the relationship between us, I believe him," he wrote about Xi on the Truth Social network, and warned that breaking the promise would be very bad for China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry claimed that the report is completely baseless and Pakistan also denied any involvement. However, if the shipment goes ahead, it will cast doubt on the promise that Trump spoke about and will signal that Beijing is willing to take more risks to strengthen Iran.
