Israel-Turkey Tensions Evolve Into Long-Term Geopolitical Rivalry
A new analysis indicates that Israel-Turkey tensions are evolving into a long-term geopolitical rivalry over regional order, independent of leadership changes in Jerusalem. Syria remains the most critical flashpoint for potential military friction between the two nations.
The diplomatic and strategic friction between Israel and Turkey is evolving into a long-term geopolitical rivalry that transcends the personal tensions between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, according to a recent analysis by researcher Mustafa Enes Asan at the InstituDE research institute.
The study highlights a comprehensive report published on October 23 by Turkey’s National Intelligence Academy, operating under the National Intelligence Organization (MIT), titled "The Anatomy of Israeli Expansionism." The document portrays Israel as a core strategic rival to Turkey, warning that Jerusalem's regional policies reflect a deep-seated institutional trajectory rather than a temporary political phase.
According to Asan, the Turkish intelligence report mirrors the prevailing consensus within Ankara’s security establishment, where Israel is increasingly viewed as a primary competitor for regional dominance rather than merely a state engaged in a temporary dispute over the conflict in Gaza.
Strategic Continuity Beyond Leadership Changes
The InstituDE analysis was released shortly after Israel's 26th Knesset elections, which concluded without a clear parliamentary majority for either political bloc. Despite the ongoing political deadlock, Asan argues that a change in Israel's leadership will not fundamentally alter the nation's core foreign and security policies.
While potential alternative leaders, such as former military chief Gadi Eisenkot or opposition figure Naftali Bennett—who recently characterized Turkey as "the new Iran"—may differ in political style from Netanyahu, their foundational security doctrines regarding Iran, Syria, and Lebanon remain largely aligned with the current administration.
Syria as the Flashpoint of Direct Confrontation
One of the central findings of the Turkish intelligence report focuses on Syria, identified as the arena where Israeli and Turkish strategic interests collide most dangerously. Ankara advocates for strengthening central state authorities and stable security apparatuses across neighboring nations, whereas the report alleges that Israel favors fragmented regional states to preserve operational freedom across its borders.
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, Syria has emerged as the primary theater for bilateral friction. Asan warns that without sustained American diplomatic mediation, the expanding operational footprint of both militaries in Syria significantly elevates the risk of unintended military escalation.
Economic Competition and Regional Corridors
The rivalry extends well beyond military maneuvers into maritime security, energy infrastructure, and trade corridors. Ankara closely monitors Israel's expanding alliances with Greece and Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean, viewing them as part of a containment strategy.
In the economic sphere, Turkey views the planned India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) as a direct challenge to its own transit ambitions, prompting Ankara to promote alternative trade routes, such as the Development Road through Iraq and the Middle Corridor connecting to Central Asia.
While US officials, including Special Envoy for Syria Tom Bark, have previously dismissed the heated rhetoric between Ankara and Jerusalem as largely political posturing, Asan concludes that institutional security perceptions in Turkey have shifted definitively, ensuring that regional competition will persist regardless of future government formations in Jerusalem.
