Facing Erdogan: An earthquake in the Turkish political system
Political turmoil in Turkey: The "New Party," established only recently, garners almost a fifth of the votes in a new poll. The ruling party remains first, while the veteran opposition suffers a historic defeat.
The first public poll conducted in Turkey since the launch of the "New Party" reveals a political earthquake in the country. According to the data, the ruling Justice and Development Party maintains its strength and leads with 32.5% support. However, the real drama is taking place in the opposition wing: the "New Party," which was established only recently, jumps straight to second place with 19.4%, while the veteran Republican People's Party is pushed to an embarrassing third place with only 11.8% support.
The poll, conducted by the research institute ORC Research, was carried out between July 27 and July 29, 2026. It covered a sample of 1,920 respondents across 26 provinces throughout the country, who were asked: "If a general election were held this coming Sunday, which party would you vote for?". The results of this poll, among the first to be published since the official establishment of the New Party, point to a profound change in the preferences of Turkish voters.
The other parties present a fragmented picture: the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party receives 8.5%, the Nationalist Movement Party receives 8.1%, the "Good Party" with 5.6%, the Victory Party stands at 3.8%, the Great Unity Party with 3.4%, the Felicity Party at 2.2%, and the New Welfare Party settles for 2%. Other parties garner 2.7% combined.
The background to this upheaval lies in the events of last weekend. On Friday, July 24, the map of the main opposition in Turkey changed without any election. Politician Özgür Özel, who was ousted from the position of chairman of the Republican People's Party following a court ruling that returned the leadership to former chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, resigned from the historic mother party. Along with him, 90 other members of parliament left and established the "New Party."
This unusual and rapid move created a new bloc of 91 seats and turned the new organization into the second-largest force in parliament. The Republican People's Party, which was founded in its time by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk and held the position of main opposition for decades, lost its status.
Today, the ruling party remains the largest with 277 members of parliament, followed by the "New Party" with 91, the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party with 56, the Nationalist Movement Party with 46, and the Republican People's Party, which dropped from 135 to only 44 seats - which places it in fifth place in the parliament, which now has 592 serving members.
Özel's New Party has completely changed the balance of power, and it seems that voters are embracing the new political order. The ORC Research poll confirms that the gamble of Özel and his faction may pay off at the ballot box.
