Between the 2013 Elections and the 2026 Elections: The Whole is Less Than the Sum of Its Parts

The 2013 election campaign was one of the sleepiest in the history of Israeli politics. While it felt as though the winner was known in advance and there was no real alternative to the rule of Benjamin Netanyahu and the right, the final vote count delivered a surprise.

Following the 2009 elections, Benjamin Netanyahu formed a government relying on right-wing bloc parties, with the addition of the Labor party led by Ehud Barak. The government's primary challenge was managing relations with the Obama administration, forcing Benjamin Netanyahu to maneuver and make a significant political shift, expressed in the Bar-Ilan speech and a ten-month freeze on settlement construction. However, these steps failed to overcome chronic Palestinian intransigence, as Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) once again let the opportunity slip. In the summer of 2011, the government faced social protests against the cost of living, which subsided only upon the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit from Hamas captivity in exchange for 1,027 terrorists.

Two years before the elections, the main battle for the lead seemed to be between Likud and Kadima, each polling around 30 mandates. However, personnel changes shifted the balance. In November 2011, Shelly Yachimovich took over the Labor party, and in January 2012, Yair Lapid announced the formation of a centrist party. In Kadima, Shaul Mofaz replaced Tzipi Livni and briefly joined a national unity government; this romance with Benjamin Netanyahu lasted only two months, damaging both parties.

Yachimovich became the main beneficiary, narrowing the gap with Benjamin Netanyahu from 12 to 4 mandates. Yet, the merger of Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu reshuffled the deck. Despite expectations that the union would yield over 40 mandates, reality fell short. While Yachimovich preached social-democratic policies, Yair Lapid presented a moderate platform for the middle class.

The election results were a major surprise: Likud-Beiteinu finished with only 31 mandates—11 fewer than the parties' combined 2009 strength. Yair Lapid's "Yesh Atid," predicted to win 13, finished second with 19. Another newcomer, Naftali Bennett, united religious Zionism under "The Jewish Home" and secured 12 mandates. The two would later form the "Brotherhood Alliance."

The key lesson from 2013 is that merging large parties can end in bitter disappointment. This scenario seems likely to repeat in 2026, as polls suggest the alliance between Bennett and Yair Lapid, the two winners of 2013, is headed for an electoral collapse.