Elon Musk doesn't believe it: SpaceX stock crashed by 50%
SpaceX stock has lost half its value since its peak, despite an impressive technological success in space. Two dates in early August could add pressure, and the lesson behind the story also concerns savers in Israel.
Just a month ago, it was a headline on every financial website in the world: the largest IPO in history, SpaceX (SPCX) shares by Elon Musk, which raised huge sums and began trading at a price of $150. Today, it is hard to remember the enthusiasm. The stock has lost nearly 30% of its IPO price and has plummeted by half — 50% — from its all-time high of $225.64. It even touched a historical low of $109.53 this week before recovering slightly.
What makes the drop particularly surprising is the timing. It comes just days after SpaceX recorded an impressive technological achievement: the 13th test launch of the giant Starship spacecraft, the first since the IPO in June. The spacecraft successfully deployed all 20 new-generation Starlink satellites, reignited an engine in space, and performed the softest water landing to date. Yet, investors chose to sell.
Why? The concern focuses on two upcoming dates. On August 4, the company will publish its second-quarter reports, and on August 6, a "share unlock" is expected — the end of the lock-up period during which long-term shareholders can sell up to 20% of their holdings. When such a volume of shares may hit the market at once, the pressure on the price increases even before the actual sale takes place.
Beyond the technical aspect, there is a strategic story here. SpaceX is betting more and more on Starship at the expense of the Falcon 9 rocket — its profitable and proven workhorse. According to Bloomberg, the company is already starting to turn away satellite operators requesting launches on Falcon 9 after 2028, has stopped accepting flight orders, and has even halted production of certain components. In other words, the entire bet is shifting to the reliability of Starship, and that is exactly what is creating uncertainty among investors.
Not everything worked in the last launch either. The booster that detaches from the spacecraft failed to ignite all 13 of its engines before landing and crashed harder than planned, although it was not intended for reuse anyway. The next step that Musk is already promising is even bolder: catching the upper stage of the spacecraft with the landing arms, directly at the launch tower.
And what does all this mean for you? Even if you do not hold SpaceX shares directly, the story concerns everyone who saves through index-tracking funds or advanced study funds (keren hishtalmut) that are exposed to American stocks. It illustrates how quickly the "IPO of the century" can turn into a loss of half the value, and how important it is to distinguish between technological success and stock value.
Analyst Alex Morris even estimated that the stock would drop to a double-digit price, below $100, but argued that this is "probably not terrible" in the long run, because the company has no real natural competitor.
Bottom line, SpaceX is still considered a dominant space company with a huge business "moat." But the gap between the vision and the market price reminds us that even great success stories require patience.
