Explosive drone near a plane: the event that should wake up Israel
The booby-trapped drone in Germany proved that ranges and accuracy have broken the rules. To prevent the next failure, Israel must harness defense-tech, tighten relations with Ukraine, and build a new layer of defense.
In recent days, something significant has happened in Europe. On the night between August 4 and 5, US intelligence sources assessed that Russia launched an explosive drone into Germany. The drone did not explode, but American intelligence sources held the Russian government responsible for the operation, despite the latter being at least 600 km away from the site.
The incident took place far from Israel, but it should serve as a bright warning sign for us: the drone threat has become strategic, and its use against the home front of countries is not a question of if, but when. Until a few years ago, the drone threat was fundamentally limited: tactical, close to the battlefield, or lacking long-range control and navigation capabilities. Then new technologies emerged that changed the picture: the first is fiber-optic drones, familiar to us all from Lebanon.
These drones can be controlled while in motion using a secure physical connection, but they are inherently limited to relatively short ranges. The second, less known and more troubling technology, is the cellular drone. This is a drone that relies on cellular communication and can reach thousands of kilometers, change its route in flight, fly at a low altitude that makes it difficult to detect, and hit targets with high precision.
Such a drone can make its way from a hostile country to Israel, or be launched from within the country itself, to hit a strategic target. The drone's operator can be in a bunker in Tehran or Sana'a, thousands of kilometers away, and use the accessible cellular network to operate it.
Precision, range, and operational flexibility are becoming accessible even to actors who could never afford the use of expensive guided missiles. This is not a theoretical threat, as demonstrated by the extensive use of this technology by Russia and Ukraine. The recent incident in Germany highlights the fact that this threat is tangible and requires a wake-up call from Israel. Recent reports that the cabinet examined the possibility of completely stopping drone activity in Israel also indicate that the understanding of the threat is beginning to sink in.
Solutions to the new threat
And yet, not enough is being done. Israel is still alarmingly exposed to this threat, and it cannot — as Iran or Russia do — completely shut down its cellular network. Israel must now invest its resources to provide an answer to the new threat, in the same way it dealt with the rocket and missile threat. It is necessary to start by drafting reference scenarios for the threat, as a central lesson from the failure of the October 7 attack: what one fails to imagine, one certainly cannot prepare against.
To this end, intelligence organizations will need to tighten cooperation with Ukraine and Eastern European countries, which have been dealing with it for a long time.
At the same time, it is required to utilize Israeli innovation and technology in order to quickly develop advanced tools for monitoring and detecting drones of this type — not only at the borders but also deep within Israel's territory. This is based on the fact that a drone has unique operating patterns in the cellular network which can, theoretically, be detected.
Alongside these, kinetic defense layers will also be required, including interception means and systems in which drones intercept other drones.
At the same time, a fast and high-quality partnership with the private sector will be required here. We must act fast, and now: the pace of change in the drone world is enormous, and the timeframes required to build the defense architecture against rockets and missiles are simply irrelevant in this case. Here too, Israel must show itself and the whole world that with the right focus, there is no challenge it cannot handle.
The author is the former head of the Hezbollah branch in Aman, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute, and a consultant in the field of drone threats in the defense-tech industry.
