Until 2029: The Bitcoin forecast from investment house Bernstein
The veteran investment house has published a bullish roadmap for the currency, against the backdrop of a 25% jump in ten days and the breaking of the $80,000 threshold. The thesis: a new era of "currency debasement" will channel money into rare assets. But are the targets realistic, or has Bernstein already been forced to push them back?
The investment house Bernstein, one of the oldest and most respected names on Wall Street, has published a particularly bullish forecast for Bitcoin. Analyst Gautam Chhugani estimates in the base scenario that the currency will reach an all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027, climb to about $300,000 by the end of 2029, and in the long term even reach one million dollars by the end of 2033.
Analysts separate two scenarios. In the base scenario, based on a model that prices Bitcoin as a multiple of the marginal cost of mining and on a four-year cycle, the currency returns to about $125,000 by the end of 2026 and continues upward from there. In the more bullish scenario, if institutional money chases Bitcoin aggressively, Chhugani sees a price of $200,000 as early as mid-2027 and a peak of $500,000 in 2029.
At the heart of the forecast lies a macro argument. According to Chhugani, forty years of declining interest rates have come to an end, and governments remain exposed to the soaring cost of debt service as the US debt touches $40 trillion.
"Rising yields create a self-reinforcing cycle of higher interest expenses, larger deficits, and larger borrowing needs," he wrote.
His conclusion: in the choice between fiscal austerity and currency debasement, politicians will prefer debasement, and therefore investors will benefit from holding rare assets that cannot be diluted, such as Bitcoin. The immediate catalyst for the current jump came precisely from the bond market: the US Treasury Department doubled the volume of long-term bond purchases, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent promised a "big toolkit" for the future.
Perspective is required here. The forecast is indeed bullish, but it is actually more cautious than its predecessor: previously, Bernstein expected $150,000 as early as the end of 2026 and a peak of $200,000 in 2027, and now they are pushing back the targets. At the same time, analysts cut the target price for Strategy stock (formerly MicroStrategy) from $450 to $350, partly due to the company's capital dilution. Other analysts are also reserved: Citi's target price stands at only $82,000, a reminder that recovery is not guaranteed if ETF demand fades or yields jump again.
For the Israeli reader, there are two lessons here. First, if Bernstein's thesis is correct, "treasury companies" leveraged on Bitcoin benefit from the upside leverage. The local example is Zuz Strategy, which holds about 1,047 coins and whose stock jumps with every rise in the currency.
Second, and here is the caveat, the same dilution problem that caused Bernstein to cut the target for Strategy is even more prominent in Zuz, which trades at a "discount" of about 40% on the Bitcoin in its treasury precisely because of value erosion and uncertainty. The leverage works in both directions.
A forecast from a respected investment house like Bernstein carries weight, but it relies on a controversial macro assumption and a time horizon of years. Even the biggest supporters are forced to push back targets when reality changes. The above does not constitute a recommendation, and exposure to Bitcoin, directly or through a leveraged stock, requires personal adjustment and risk management.
