Turkish soldiers opposite Metula and Kiryat Shmona: Erdogan's dramatic plan in Lebanon
According to "An-Nahar", Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed the possibility of Hezbollah transferring its heavy weaponry to Iran under Turkish-Iranian coordination. The framework includes a full Israeli withdrawal from Southern Lebanon. The organization has yet to respond to the proposal.
Negotiations between Lebanon and Israel are still far from a resolution on the two central issues hanging over them: an Israeli withdrawal from Southern Lebanon and the future of Hezbollah's weapons. According to a report in the Lebanese newspaper "An-Nahar", a new framework is currently being examined behind the scenes intended to connect the two issues.
According to the report, the subject was raised in a meeting held late last month between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara. One of the central topics was the future of Hezbollah's heavy weaponry—mainly missiles and UAVs—and the possibility of transferring it to Iran under the supervision and coordination of Ankara and Tehran. The framework, according to the newspaper, is expected to be accompanied by a full Israeli withdrawal from Southern Lebanon, alongside a commitment from the US and other countries that Israel will not return to attack in Lebanon after the arrangement is implemented.
According to "An-Nahar", President Aoun has been promoting discussions with the Hezbollah leadership since the first weeks of his term regarding the possibility that the organization will relinquish its heavy weapons and transfer them to the Lebanese army or another agreed-upon framework.
Light weapons may remain in the first stage
The parties involved in the framework, according to the report, do not oppose Hezbollah continuing to hold light and medium weapons in the first stage. The future of this weaponry is to be determined later within the framework of a separate arrangement between the organization and the Lebanese government. However, Hezbollah has not yet provided an answer to the proposal. According to "An-Nahar", the organization is waiting for developments in negotiations between the US and Iran, hoping that a broader arrangement between Washington and Tehran will create more favorable conditions for progress on the Lebanese arena.
If the framework progresses, it will also be necessary to resolve another issue: which international force will supervise the border between Lebanon and Israel after the arrangement. This possibility is being examined within the framework of contacts in Rome and other capitals, but according to the report, Israel has not yet agreed to the deployment of such a force.
Turkey is ready to integrate—in coordination with Iran
Turkey, according to the newspaper, does not oppose taking part in the arrangement but conditions this on coordination with Iran and clarity regarding the future of understandings between Tehran and the Donald Trump administration. Although ties between Ankara and Hezbollah have not been completely severed and continue through security channels, there is still deep reservation in Turkey regarding the organization due to its long-standing involvement in the civil war in Syria and its support for the regime of Bashar Assad.
On the other hand, the Turks are not interested in seeing Hezbollah defeated by Israel. According to the report, Erdogan expressed to Aoun and other officials concern over the expansion of Israeli activity in the region, from Southern Lebanon to Southern Syria and Gaza. Against this background, he even warned Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa against sending Syrian forces towards Lebanon for a confrontation with Hezbollah, despite statements attributed to President Trump on the subject.
Within the framework of these contacts, the possibility of deploying a Turkish force in Southern Lebanon as part of the future international mechanism was also raised. However, Ankara clarifies that such a move will not be carried out without prior coordination with Washington. A Turkish official quoted in the newspaper explained the sensitivity sharply: "We cannot afford for a Turkish soldier to be killed by Israeli fire." According to "An-Nahar", this means that Turkey is indeed ready to play a more active role in the Lebanese arrangement, but not before the rules of the game between Israel, Lebanon, the US, Iran, and Turkey are clearly defined.
As of now, the two central issues remain open: Israel has not yet withdrawn from all the territories it holds in Southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah has not yet given an answer to the framework that is supposed to remove at least the heavy weapons from its hands.
