"Armed militias in the streets": Police nightmare scenario for election night revealed
Refusal to accept results, a TV channel fostering a "stolen election narrative," and tens of thousands of citizens with weapons. The security establishment is preparing for an extreme scenario that could deteriorate into civil war immediately upon the publication of exit polls.
"Capitol Order" — this is the extreme scenario for which the security establishment is preparing ahead of election day. It is a scenario in which one of the two blocs competing in the upcoming elections claims that election fraud has occurred and declares that it does not accept the results. The scenario was prepared following the events of January 6, 2021, when the incumbent US President Donald Trump lost the election to Joe Biden.
Thousands of supporters of Donald Trump stormed the Capitol building in Washington at the time. The goal was to prevent Congress from certifying Joe Biden's victory. Five people were killed and hundreds were injured in the clashes, and the event is remembered as a severe crisis in American democracy.
Former head of the Police Operations Division, retired Major General Sigal Bar-Zvi, headed the team that drafted the "Capitol" order — a preparation plan in case an Israeli political group claims massive fraud and attempts to disrupt the vote counting process, or in the event of an attempt to harm the Knesset building by tens of thousands of people.
According to a security official, the great fear for which the police are obligated to prepare is the scenario of not accepting election results. "If I am Dani Levy, the Police Commissioner, one thing should bother me from morning to night. Not the deployment of forces on election day — the police know how to do that best. The problem is on election night, after the polls close and the reports from the exit polls and the actual results start coming in. A dangerous scenario is that one of the heads of the two blocs will declare that he does not accept the results and will call on the public to take to the streets. In such a case, the police will require the assistance of other bodies, and primarily the IDF," said a retired senior police officer.
"A realistic and frightening scenario"
A number of former police officers and Shin Bet personnel say that the "Capitol scenario" must be at the top of the organizations' preparation list. "It would be a huge failure if it turns out that they did not put this scenario at the top of the list of responses. A structured order must be issued with the order of forces and reinforcements. Exercises must be carried out at the National Headquarters, and even a 'war game' for commanders should be held. This is an extreme scenario, but one must prepare for it with the utmost seriousness," says a former security official.
"Maariv" has learned that the Police Commissioner, Dani Levy, often holds conversations with former senior officials, some of whom raised the fear of this nightmare scenario.
"The Shin Bet and the police are the two organizations entrusted with maintaining democracy in Israel. Unfortunately, today it is difficult to rely on the Shin Bet, and it is unclear to what extent it will act professionally. We are already seeing the beginning of this process, when there is a channel that broadcasts week after week results of fabricated polls, which is a kind of preparation for the narrative of stealing the election. To this is added a campaign of delegitimization against the Election Committee and the Supreme Court.
"To all this must be added the armed militias that have arisen in Israel in the last four years: the regional defense units (GAMAR) in the West Bank, the standby squads all over the country, and the tens of thousands of weapons that have been distributed to citizens. This is definitely a dangerous and violent platform for a civil war. This is the biggest nightmare. Here is a test of leaders — whether they are going to create an event of not accepting the election results, or whether they will act with public responsibility even if they lose," says a retired police major general.
Next week, the Police Commissioner is scheduled to meet with the forum of major generals to present the police investigations into the October 7 massacre and the preparations for election day. According to many retired major generals, the issue of election night and the Capitol scenario will be at the center of the discourse. "In the current state of affairs, this is a very realistic and frightening scenario. The understanding is that the police will be required to stand at the center of this event," says a senior official in the security establishment.
In response, the police stated: "As part of the preparations for the Knesset elections, the Israel Police is preparing with structured staff work, the purpose of which is to provide a response to the challenges of security, order, traffic, and the purity of the elections. In the period before the elections, on election day itself, and in the days after, the Israel Police will deploy policing systems in accordance with periodic situation assessments."
