Crisis of trust: The cracks in Netanyahu and Trump's relationship are deepening

The atmosphere prevailing in the American capital on the eve of Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting with President Trump faithfully reflects the cooling trend that has emerged in relations between the allies in recent months. Even if it turns out that in yesterday's conversation the President emphasized his deep commitment to Israel's security and repeated his statements that his relations with Netanyahu are normal or even excellent, this will not be enough to hide the many and widening cracks between the two partners — cracks that create a real threat to the core of the special relationship.

The disagreements between Jerusalem and Washington are not limited to one arena this time, but are systemic and cover a wide spectrum of points of disagreement, alongside American avoidance of sharing with Israel the launch of strategic moves of great importance to it. Among other things, the White House expressed willingness to sell Turkey advanced F-35 aircraft, signed an agreement with Riyadh to build a civilian nuclear reactor (subject to Saudi progress on the path to normalization within the framework of the "Abraham Accords"), and most importantly — continues to conduct contacts for the renewal of the ceasefire with Iran, in parallel with the President's threats to escalate the confrontation. All this is done without Israel being updated on these initiatives, including the original ceasefire outline designed by the USA, the implications of which for it are far-reaching — especially in connection with the nuclear sphere.

Roots of the crisis - in the White House

The main reason for the steep decline in the level of strategic-political coordination, while the level of tactical, intelligence, and operational coordination remains high, is rooted in a crisis of trust. This burden was created for the President and most of his senior advisors regarding the Prime Minister's reliability.

The central turning point was the optimism-saturated scenario that Netanyahu drew for Trump on the eve of the war in February, regarding the potential to achieve a total victory in the Iranian arena and lay the infrastructure for regime change in Tehran — a scenario that soon proved to be clearly unrealistic. Added to this is the Israeli public diplomacy effort to influence American target audiences recently in an even more confrontational direction towards Iran, with implicit and open criticism of some of the President's staff, which explains the resentment that senior officials in the President's circle, and first and foremost Vice President Vance, have developed towards the Prime Minister.

Israel is exposed in public opinion

Unlike crises in the past where Israel enjoyed a solid and broad internal safety net in the American public, today it is exposed. Public opinion — including among the Jewish community and the Republican movement, not to mention the Democratic Party — has become mostly critical, if not hostile, towards Netanyahu's positions and moves. The American public expresses criticism both of the way Netanyahu managed the campaign in the Gaza Strip, even though the military struggle against Hamas itself is perceived as more than justified, and of his procrastination strategy regarding the promotion of political processes in the broad regional plane.

At the root of the sediments poisoning the relations lies the prevailing feeling in Washington that even today, as in February, Netanyahu aspires to drag the USA into an escalation in the Gulf. In the American perception, this aspiration stems not only from vital national security considerations but mainly from political, coalition, and electoral considerations that contradict the President's priorities, as a prolonged and extensive military campaign is perceived by him as a worst-case scenario in every possible aspect.

Against this background, and in view of Israel's growing isolation in the internal American arena, one can only hope that the meeting will succeed in being the catalyst for a reset in relations and an improvement in the atmosphere. Such a reset will require understandable Israeli insistence on core issues, such as the complex related to the Iranian nuclear program, alongside a parallel willingness to "play" in the White House's court and demonstrate tactical flexibility and creativity in other planes — this despite the certain political price that these steps may cost Netanyahu three months before the election day for the Knesset.