Fears of a Russian invasion of NATO: "It would be World War III with nuclear consequences"
US intelligence warns that Putin may test NATO with a limited attack. Russia is building drone launch bases within a range of nearly 1,000 km, and a sharp increase in Russian air activity is already being recorded. Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola, a former senior NATO official, estimates that an invasion of a member state is still unlikely, but warns of a more sophisticated scenario: "Putin is unpredictable. He has already done things that were considered illogical."
Satellite images recently cited by the British Telegraph show the infrastructure being built on the Russian side: ten new bases, at least 59 dedicated launch rails, and drones, some of which are capable of flying about 1,000 km. These infrastructures were established along the borders with Belarus and Ukraine, and seven of the sites have already been used for massive attacks against Kyiv. Their location and range extend the threat far beyond Ukraine, putting major cities in NATO territory, led by Warsaw, within striking range.
At the same time, across the ocean, there is also growing concern about Vladimir Putin's next move. New US intelligence reports, reported by the Wall Street Journal earlier this month, estimate that the Russian president may in the coming years try to test the resolve of the North Atlantic Alliance through a limited action against one of its member states. The scenarios being examined in Washington range from a cyberattack or sending unidentified armed forces to a limited invasion on the alliance's eastern flank, in a window of time starting as early as this autumn and lasting until 2029.
Admiral Giampaolo Di Paola, former chairman of the NATO Military Committee, does not see a Russian invasion of a member state as a likely scenario at the moment. However, someone who also served as Chief of Defense and Minister of Defense of Italy and currently serves as an advisor to the Israeli defense-tech fund Kinetica, has learned in recent years not to rule out any scenario just because it seems illogical.
"I don't think it's likely that Russia, while already dealing with a war in Ukraine, would launch any conventional attack or hostile action against a NATO country," he says in an interview with N12. "It knows very well that in such a case, NATO would respond." Immediately after comes the caveat: "Never say never. Russia made a huge mistake with the invasion of Ukraine. This means that no one is perfect, and Putin can also make a serious mistake."
If Putin wants to test the alliance, he estimates, he might prefer to do it in a place where the response is less automatic. "I think more about disinformation, a cyberattack," he says. "If Russia wanted to test the allies' response, their solidarity or actions, it would probably try cyber activity — and if possible, below the threshold of an Article 5 response."
The Eastern Flank Threat
This refers to a clause in the North Atlantic Treaty stating that an attack on one member of the alliance will be considered an attack on all. Even a cyberattack could, according to NATO doctrine, justify its activation in certain cases — but unlike tanks crossing a border, it is much harder to determine when a hostile action crosses the threshold that requires a response. Di Paola gives an example: an attack that disables Estonia's energy infrastructure could, in his view, clearly cross the threshold; a point-specific disruption to communication lines would put the alliance members before a much more difficult dilemma.
"It could be an attempt to disable NATO's communication capability or command and control capability," he clarifies. "But at a level that would not be high enough to trigger an automatic response." The goal, if such a move were to be carried out, would be to test whether the 32 countries that have committed to defend each other will indeed stand together in the moment of truth. Naturally, the threat is felt especially on the alliance's eastern flank — in the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania. However, Di Paola warns against a situation where the Russian threat is perceived as a problem of the front line only. "All allies must be ready."
From here comes his sharpest warning. "If NATO and Russia are involved in a war — it will be World War III," he declares, adding that such a conflict could also have potential nuclear consequences. Precisely for this reason, Di Paola argues that the main task is to ensure that the Kremlin understands that the price of any such military adventure would be too high. "Deterrence is making the adversary understand that you are ready to respond, and quickly."
Technological Edge and NATO's Future
Meanwhile, the small tests are already happening almost daily. According to NATO command data, during July there was an increase of more than 250% in operational scrambles of fighter jets on the alliance's eastern flank compared to July 2025. The alliance links the surge to a significant increase in Russian flights near NATO borders, sometimes without identification systems, in what is perceived as an attempt to gather intelligence, demonstrate power, and test the defense systems of the alliance members.
Di Paola is convinced that in the overall balance of power, NATO is capable of dealing with Russia. "If Ukraine has managed for years to hold back the Russian army," he says, "NATO — an alliance of 32 countries including three nuclear powers — has much greater military strength." His criticism is directed mainly at the burden-sharing within the alliance, and Europe's continued dependence on the USA.
Di Paola identifies several areas where NATO simply cannot afford to lag behind:
-
Unmanned systems: NATO needs to become a leader in the ability to use unmanned systems alongside manned systems.
-
New technologies: Utilizing artificial intelligence and quantum computing to respond faster and more effectively.
-
Space: Satellites are an integral part of the battlefield for intelligence and early warning.
-
Air defense: The most urgent area to improve, including defense against hypersonic missiles and drones.
