Against All Polls: Will Netanyahu Recreate the 2015 Election Miracle?
That year, the Zionist Camp led in the polls and Isaac Herzog was almost celebrating, but Likud ultimately won 30 seats. A look back at Benjamin Netanyahu’s historic battle and the lessons for the next campaign.
The 2015 election campaign was one of the most fascinating and surprising in the history of Israeli politics. For Benjamin Netanyahu, it was a battle for political survival—a matter of life and death.
Netanyahu on the "Arabs are flocking" video: "I have never been against the right of Arabs to vote."
After his narrow success in the 2013 elections, Netanyahu could have formed a narrow right-wing government. However, the "brotherhood alliance" between Bayit Yehudi chairman Naftali Bennett and Yesh Atid chairman Yair Lapid, who agreed to act together, left him no choice but to keep the Haredi parties out of the coalition. Tzipi Livni also joined the government.
At the beginning of the government's term, it seemed that progress had been made in the political process with the Palestinians. Under the guidance of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, negotiations were extended for nine months in exchange for the release of 104 Palestinian prisoners.
However, the refusal of PA leader Abu Mazen to accept Washington's mediation proposals and the subsequent Operation Protective Edge against Hamas in the summer of 2014 changed the landscape. Netanyahu's standing weakened, primarily in favor of Bennett, with polls showing the gap between Likud and Bayit Yehudi narrowing to just four seats (20 vs. 16).
By the end of 2014, it was clear that Netanyahu's third government would not last long. Disputes over the "Israel Hayom" law, the "zero VAT" initiative from Yesh Atid, and the Nation-State Law paralyzed the coalition. Having lost control, Netanyahu decided to fire Lapid and Livni, dissolve the Knesset, and call for elections in March 2015.
Simultaneously, the "Zionist Camp" was formed—a union between the Labor party led by Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni's "HaTnuah." Early polls predicted a major success: the Zionist Camp led with 24 seats against Likud's 23, and Herzog overnight became a viable candidate for prime minister.
The campaign highlighted the importance of being the largest faction in the Knesset. Netanyahu, who declared that left-wing parties would not sit in his future government, fought to reclaim votes from the right-wing electorate. Despite this, as election day approached, the gap in favor of the Zionist Camp widened, reaching four seats in the final poll (26 vs. 22).
The data suggested that Herzog had a chance to form a center-left coalition with the support of Haredi parties, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, and Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu. Herzog understood that being the largest party was the key condition, so he attempted to siphon additional votes from Yesh Atid.
However, reality defied the polls: Netanyahu secured a major victory, winning 30 seats against 24 for his opponents. The 2015 elections proved that everything is possible in Israeli politics. Netanyahu, whom many had already written off, managed at the last moment to win back right-wing voters. Will he succeed in repeating this feat in the 2026 elections, despite current bleak predictions? We will find out on the morning of October 28.
Dr. Uri Wertman is a lecturer and research fellow at the University of South Wales (UK) and author of the book "Crash: Labor Party 1992–2024."
