How Much Oil Passes Through the Strait of Hormuz Daily? Estimates Vary

Since the beginning of May, the US military has assisted tankers in transporting more than 660 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command (CENTCOM) told CNBC this week. Captain Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for Central Command, stated yesterday that the military has helped approximately 1,300 commercial vessels pass through the strait during this period.

"A number of lanes remain open and free for commercial transit," Hawkins said. Military data indicates that at least 160 million barrels, or more than 7 million barrels per day, have passed through the strait in the last three weeks. While these volumes are significantly lower than pre-war levels—when about 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed through daily—they demonstrate that significant shipments continue despite threats and attacks from Iran.

Discrepancies in Estimates

It remains unclear exactly how much oil leaves the strait daily, as US government estimates are generally higher than those provided by independent tracking companies. US officials told Axios on Wednesday that about 10 million barrels per day had exited the strait in recent weeks, while US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright stated on August 11 that the seven-day average had risen to nearly 9 million barrels per day.

Private monitoring bodies offer different figures. The shipping intelligence firm Windward estimates that crude oil exports averaged about 5 million barrels per day in July. Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a senior marine intelligence analyst at Windward, notes that exports are expanding rapidly despite the immense pressure Iran is exerting on maritime security. Meanwhile, experts at Lloyd's List highlight the lack of reliable information due to the complexity of tracking vessels during wartime, especially as many ships transit at night when satellite coverage is limited.

A Contentious Security Situation

The security situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly volatile. Iran claimed earlier this week that it had closed the strait until the US fulfills its obligations under the interim peace agreement signed on June 17. Conversely, President Donald Trump insists that the strait remains open and under US control.

For months, the strait has been effectively divided into two shipping lanes: the southern lane, where the US military assists vessels, and the northern lane, which passes through Iranian territorial waters where Tehran threatens attacks. According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), at least 17 commercial vessels were attacked in and around the strait in July and August, resulting in at least four deaths and over a dozen injuries.

Despite the high risks, tankers continue to make the journey. Analysts report that tankers can earn $500,000 per day, with crew members receiving double or triple pay for transiting the high-risk zone.