Five months of war have not stopped the Iranian nuclear program: "Enough material for 10 bombs"
Despite heavy strikes on nuclear sites, experts estimate that a significant portion of Tehran's capability has survived. The fate of the 60% enriched uranium stockpile is unknown, but US intelligence estimates that the massive reservoir in Isfahan is still reachable. Professionals warn that the nuclear capability still exists and Iran could produce a bomb in less than a year.
One of the main goals presented by US President Donald Trump when he initiated the campaign against Iran was to prevent the Islamic Republic from obtaining nuclear weapons. However, more than five months into the conflict, officials and experts estimate that while the strikes have significantly slowed the Iranian nuclear program, they have not destroyed it.
The primary issue is that the status of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains uncertain. Tehran continues to restrict International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors from accessing sensitive sites. According to expert estimates, despite strikes on three major facilities in 2025 and 2026, Iran still holds enough uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade levels to produce up to ten nuclear bombs after further processing.
"The capability still exists for the most part," Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told The New York Times. Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, argued in a recent analysis that the war has demonstrated that Trump's "maximum pressure" policy and military actions have failed to completely erase Iran's nuclear potential.
Status of Key Nuclear Sites
Isfahan: As of February, the IAEA estimated that approximately 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium was stored in the Isfahan area. While the nuclear complex sustained severe damage during US and Israeli strikes in June 2025, the stockpile itself is believed to have survived. US intelligence agencies estimate that Iranians may still be able to reach these materials through narrow access points in tunnels.
Natanz: Iran's largest enrichment site also suffered significant damage in 2025. However, about a kilometer and a half away lies a site known as "Pickaxe Mountain." Construction on this deep-underground facility continued even after the June 2025 strikes, remaining a major concern despite threats from the Trump administration.
Fordo: Long considered the crown jewel of Iran's program, this facility was hit by 12 heavy bombs in June 2025. US intelligence estimates suggest it was severely damaged and potentially rendered inoperable, though Iran has been observed reinforcing the roads leading to the blocked tunnel entrances.
Restoration Capabilities
While there is currently no evidence of resumed enrichment or attempts to access existing stockpiles, the main threat lies in Tehran's ability to quickly restore operations. James Acton, a physicist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, warns: "I estimate that at this stage they could produce a bomb in less than a year."
