Five things to know ahead of the stock market opening

Trading review: current reports, trends, indices, stock prices, bonds, foreign currency, commodities, and analyst recommendations. 8:15.

1. Stock market

The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange will open the trading day this morning in an attempt to continue the positive trend from yesterday. Investors will draw encouragement from the strong finish of the previous trading day, but will have to maneuver simultaneously against the question marks in the regional arena and assessments that the negotiations between the US and Iran have reached a dead end. This morning in Asia, the trading day is proceeding with a mixed trend. The gains are led by the South Korean KOSPI index, which is jumping by about 2%, alongside moderate gains of about 0.4% in the Japanese Nikkei index. On the other hand, price declines are recorded in the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong, which is weakening by about 0.9%, while the Shanghai indices are losing about 0.2%.

Trading in futures on Wall Street points to stability around the baseline levels, with Dow Jones futures recording slight gains of about 0.1%, S&P 500 futures trading around the baseline levels with slight gains, while Nasdaq futures are weakening by about 0.1%. Oil prices are trading this morning almost unchanged, as investors maneuver between the renewed threats of the US against Iran and the possibility of a prolonged naval blockade, and the ongoing concerns about the weakening of global demand. Also, the expectation for a decline in inflation, which will be published at the market close, may foster additional optimism in the market. This, in turn, if it meets expectations, will fall below the center of the Bank of Israel's inflation target, which stands at the 1%-3% range, and will support a reduction in the interest rate in September.

Among the dual-listed stocks, Tower is at a negative gap of about 4%, Nice at a positive gap of a similar rate. The rest of the dual-listed stocks are at marginal gaps. Yesterday, the stock exchange closed with gains. The TA-90 index jumped by about 1.5%. The TA-35 index by 0.2%. The gains were led by the biomed and communications sectors, which strengthened by 2.1%, and the construction index, which added 2%. The oil and gas sector also stood out.

Yesterday, Nofar Energy shares, Tel Aviv Stock Exchange shares, and Electra Real Estate shares stood out. Also yesterday: Tadiran shares jumped following the quarterly report. Biomed company Alpha Tau shares received a warm welcome on their debut day on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange and jumped. NewMed Energy shares jumped following a good report and its announcement of the completion of the Ashdod-Ashkelon offshore pipeline section, which is expected to increase exports in the coming quarters. Mar Group climbed after reporting new orders from the Ministry of Defense. Discount Bank shares rose against the background of the publication of a net profit of 1.2 billion shekels in the second quarter (an increase of 8%), with a return on equity of 14%. On the other hand, Isracard fell despite an 11% jump in revenues to 954 million shekels and a transition to a net profit of 80 million shekels.

Green closing on Wall Street: The S&P 500 climbed to a record as the decline in oil prices and more moderate inflation data supported stocks. The index rose by 0.6% and crossed the 7,800-point threshold for the first time before retreating slightly, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.7%, led by Meta, Micron, and Netflix. The Dow Jones traded around the opening level. The Russell 2000 index, considered a barometer of small-cap stocks in the US, also set a record. The index has already jumped by more than 23% since the beginning of the year, after adding more than 2% also during the last month, and continues to lead the performance of the US stock market in 2026.

Oil prices are falling by about 2%: Brent futures are trading above 87 dollars per barrel, while US oil is above 81 dollars, against the background of a decline in demand for oil and the war between the US and Iran. At the same time, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US remained unchanged in July, compared to an expectation of a 0.2% increase. The core index rose by 0.2%, slightly below the forecasts of 0.3%. The figure comes a day after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% in July, in line with expectations. The moderate inflation data strengthens the assessments that the Federal Reserve will not rush to raise the interest rate in September, and supports the continuation of gains on Wall Street.

Stocks that attracted interest: Netflix rose after Bill Ackman's Pershing Square fund revealed a new investment in the company. Ackman already held the stock at the beginning of 2022, but sold it about three months later. Super Micro Computer - the shares of the server manufacturer for data centers continued the jump after the reports after jumping by 19% yesterday. The company's forecast for the first quarter exceeded analysts' expectations, with an adjusted profit of 1.01-1.10 dollars per share and revenues of 14.5-15.5 billion dollars, compared to an expectation of 72 cents per share and revenues of 11.82 billion dollars. Cisco - the shares of the communications equipment giant fell after the company's forecast for the adjusted gross profit margin in the first quarter, 65%-66%, was slightly below the consensus of 66.1%. The forecast overshadowed the forecast for the entire fiscal year, which was strong. At Goldman Sachs, they said that the stock is expected to trade in a mixed trend, when the strong forecast for 2027 is offset by concerns regarding the gross profit margin rate. Intel shares rose after Bank of America maintained the "buy" recommendation for the stock, and noted that the capital raising in the amount of 20 billion dollars may support the company's plan to expand its chip manufacturing activity (Foundry). Israeli companies on Wall Street: Wix, Monday, Playtika, and Zim jumped while Similarweb fell by about 30% following the quarterly report. Palo Alto is rising by about 2% to a market value of 320 billion dollars and it is about 4% away from being the first trillion-shekel company in TA.

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2. Bond market

The trading day in the government bond market in Tel Aviv yesterday was characterized by slight yield declines along the entire curve. In the short-medium part, the yield for two years weakened by about 0.5% to a level of 3.415%. In the central part of the curve, the yield for 10 years retreated slightly by 0.26% to a level of 3.838%, while at the long end, the yield for 30 years records a decline of about 0.52% to 4.386%. The curve maintains a relatively steep structure, reflecting a gap of about 97 basis points between the bonds for two years and those for 30 years.

In the US, the yields on 30-year bonds are rising and approaching record levels not seen since 2007, on the eve of the subprime crisis. The rise in yields, which reflects an increase in the risk level that investors are pricing, is attributed to a combination of concerns about the American deficit, high supply in the corporate market, and a decline in demand from foreign investors. At Morgan Stanley, they wrote that "the long end of the curve is fighting many forces". Analyst David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, noted that the problem is deeper than just inflationary concerns: "If everything was around inflation and inflation expectations, the yield for 10 years would be now below 4.4%, and not 4.67% as it is now". In the market, they warn that the continued rise in yields might burden economic growth and also press the stock markets downward.

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3. Currency and commodities market

Oil prices are recording slight gains this morning, following the US announcement that it may maintain a naval blockade on Iran "indefinitely". The development returned to the center stage the concerns about disruptions in crude oil supply, this after in the previous trading day price declines were recorded against the background of forecasts for the weakening of global demand. Brent oil futures are climbing by about 0.1% to a level of 87.16 dollars per barrel, while US oil (WTI) is also rising by about 0.1% to a level of 81.41 dollars per barrel. As recalled, both indices lost more than 2% in the previous trading day as part of profit-taking that interrupted a prolonged series of gains, but they are still on the way to a positive weekly summary with a jump of about 4%. The declines reflect the investors' assessment that the slowdown in global demand might offset at least part of the influence of the geopolitical risks and the damage to oil supply in the Middle East region.

In the foreign currency arena, this morning, the US dollar is correcting this morning upwards and recording a slight increase of about 0.30% against the shekel, as it trades around a level of 2.965 shekels. On a weekly level, the dollar recorded a cumulative weekly retreat of about 0.5% against the shekel as it trades below the 3-shekel threshold. Yossi Menashe, founder and co-CEO at Altshuler Shaham Financial Services, explained that "relative weakness of the dollar in the world supports the shekel, but the exchange rate continues to be very sensitive to regional developments. The Strait of Hormuz remains a central risk focus, and as long as shipping has not returned to normal, oil and geopolitics continue to be variables that can quickly change the interest rate and currency picture".

Gold prices are retreating this morning on the way to a negative weekly summary, as investors move to profit-taking after the precious metal climbed to a two-month high following moderate inflation data in the US. Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at the Tastylive network, explained to CNBC that "speculative capital is taking a little profit because there is no powerful immediate trigger before us", but estimates that the current environment is building a platform for a significant wave of gains: "If we manage to cross the 4,400 dollar level, I don't think that a price of 5,000 dollars per ounce by the end of the year is a scenario detached from reality".

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4. Macro

Many eyes will be turned today to the Central Bureau of Statistics. The Consumer Price Index for July 2026, which will be published at the market close today, is expected according to estimates in the capital market to rise by about 0.2%-0.3%, the rate of increase since the same month last year will decrease from 1.6% to 1.4%. This figure brings inflation closer to the lower limit of the Bank of Israel's target (1%). Apparently, this should lead to faster and more drastic activity by the Bank of Israel on the path of interest rate reduction.

Despite this, Ronen Menachem, chief economist of Mizrahi Tefahot Bank, suggests cooling the enthusiasm and not settling for the bottom line only - but to examine in particular the factors that influence the index and the volatility in them. This includes oil prices, "which have changed, meanwhile, direction and returned to rise, against the background of the continuation of tension in the Middle East. Oil prices are a vital supply factor, and when they rise, the question is how much consumers will reduce the demand for other products and services. "This topic makes it difficult to provide a monthly forecast for the index. This also gives extra importance to the Producer Price Index, which reflects more directly the consequences of fuel prices and inputs, and from it, it will be possible to learn about the effects of the supply side and the transmission on the Consumer Price Index in the near future", he explained.

Yonatan Katz, chief economist of the Leader investment house, referred to this this week when he said that "from the Bank of Israel's point of view, there are contradictory trends: on one hand, inflation expectations are low and damage to industry due to the sharp appreciation of the shekel support interest rate reduction. On the other hand, the return of the economy to full activity (except for the hotel industry) while there is a shortage of workers supports a cautious monetary policy". The business trend survey of the CBS for July showed that the inflation expectations of businesses reached the lowest level since 2022. At the Meitav investment house, they noted this week that "also our model, which predicts inflation without housing based on the companies' answers regarding the expected change in selling prices in the next month, points to the continuation of inflation moderation".

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5. Forecast

The cloud infrastructure company, Nevius Group, recorded a jump of 210% since the beginning of 2026 against the background of the artificial intelligence boom. Despite price declines in pre-market following the reports, at Bank of America they remain optimistic, raising the target price to 310 dollars and marking an upside of about 20%.

Nevius Group company shares more than tripled their value since the beginning of 2026 thanks to the flourishing of artificial intelligence, but at Bank of America they estimate that it has more power to continue and climb. The bank maintained the "buy" recommendation for the cloud computing stock and raised the target price from 280 dollars to 310 dollars - a price that reflects an upside of about 20% relative to the closing rate of Wednesday. The optimistic update comes following the publication of financial reports that were stronger than expected for the second quarter of the year. Nevius reported an adjusted EBITDA of 236.2 million dollars, a figure that is significantly higher than the analysts' forecasts that believed it would stand at 168.8 million dollars. In the top line, the company presented revenues of 582.3 million dollars, above the market consensus that stood at 569.9 million dollars. Alongside this, the company confirmed its revenue forecast and its annual financial goals.

Analyst Tal Liani from Bank of America noted in a review sent to clients that Nevius benefits from "AI-adapted cloud infrastructure that is expanding rapidly, alongside a strong global pipeline of data centers - something that puts it in an excellent position to profit from the growing demand for AI computing in a wide scale". Liani added that "the performance record of the management alongside the unified end-to-end platform that the company offers, create lasting competitive advantages that support the continuation of growth". According to Liani, the results and the continuation of meeting the goals are expected to strengthen investor confidence: "Nevius reported strong results for the second quarter. More importantly, the management maintained the goal for the integration of connected power of 800 megawatts to one gigawatt by the end of 2026, which helps to dispel the latest investor concerns regarding the site deployment schedules". The optimistic forecast of Bank of America aligns with the broad consensus on Wall Street: out of 19 analysts covering Nevius shares, 13 hold a "buy" or "strong buy" recommendation.