It’s not missiles: Iran on the brink of explosion — the collapse from within has already begun | Amit Yegor
A shortage of electricity and water, a surge in prices, increased repression, and erosion of security forces. All of these, alongside the organization of the opposition, could turn the internal arena into the factor that will determine the fate of the ayatollahs in Iran.
A wide report published this week in the New York Post by correspondent David Spector under the headline “Iranian revolution can happen 'any day now' as protest leaders try to arm: sources” brought to the surface a central component of the war that news reports tend to ignore due to lack of access to materials, language barriers, or a lack of interest in going deeper: opposition leaders and activists on the ground report that the country is approaching a point of unprecedented boiling.
Regardless of whether this is a tendentious report, evidence from Iran confirms the story: beneath the diplomatic and military surface, a structural collapse of basic life-support services is occurring, combined with a massive surge in the cost of living, a strategic shift in the resistance movement, tightening cultural repression, and low morale within security mechanisms.
The structural crisis: power outages, industrial paralysis, and the collapse of agriculture
The depth of infrastructure failure in Iran is no longer limited to the private sector; it is now visibly paralyzing the national economy and food supply chains:
-
In an official statement from several days ago, the director of the Engineering and Strategy Department of the state electricity company announced that the regime is imposing full-day electricity restrictions once a week on all industrial areas. Simultaneously, the spokesperson for the Energy Committee in parliament announced that planned power outages will continue at least until the end of October.
-
Paralysis of pumps and municipal water cuts: in the city of Gachesarān, residents report daily water outages from 08:00 until midnight alongside prolonged electricity cuts. In the cities of Bōmāhēn, Harīar, and Kōdes, residents have access to running water only a few hours, twice to three times a week.
-
Drying up local agriculture: farmers in Fars District warned this week that rice fields are drying up completely due to a severe water shortage, precisely when seedlings should be reaching the peak of grain formation. Farmers protest that the water authority charges full upfront payments but fails to channel water to the fields, threatening public food security.
The cost of living and the gap in means of livelihood
Rampant inflation has turned basic survival into a heavy burden. Recently, laptops have become available only for rent, not for purchase, illustrating the depth of the economic crisis. The average monthly wage for a manual worker or junior employee in Iran is around 10 to 15 million toman—equivalent to 15 to 25 dollars per month.
When a single basic meal costs about $0.28 (180,000 toman), one person spends over 5.4 million toman per month on basic sustenance—35% to 50% of an average family's monthly income, even before rent, electricity, medicine, or transport. Bread and eggs, long heavily subsidized, have seen price surges of hundreds of percent due to the cancellation of government subsidies caused by a shortage of dollars in the public treasury.
Small businesses, such as restaurants in Bandar Abbas, face closure. Workers at the ATA airline in Tehran report three consecutive months of unpaid wages and six months of unpaid social insurance contributions. In higher education, tuition at the Free Islamic University has jumped by 20%–30%, while the cancellation of medicine subsidies has led to a 30% drop in local production and severe shortages of insulin and oncology drugs.
Choking the social space: closing cafés in Tehran
In recent weeks, the internal crackdown has targeted cafés in central Tehran. A wave of police raids has closed dozens of popular venues under pretexts such as hijab non-compliance, unauthorized mixing of genders, playing Western music, or invented licensing violations. For the younger generation, cafés are not just for coffee; they are hubs for gathering and exchanging views. Closing them harms one of the few havens from the harsh daily routine.
Escalation in executions and armed resistance
To curb unrest, the regime has drastically increased the use of the death penalty. Reports from human rights organizations like “Hengao” indicate that in July alone, at least 67 prisoners were executed, including at least nine political protesters. According to UN human rights data, 56 people have been executed since March on charges of harming national security.
A prominent example is the punishment of Mahdi Roshni, a Kurdish protester arrested in January 2026, who was transferred to Tehran, cut off from his family, and subjected to severe torture to extract a forced confession, leading to a death sentence. Meanwhile, the hunger strike campaign (“Tuesdays against executions”) has spread to 59 prisons. Activists are working to obtain weapons from private stockpiles and border smuggling. In western and south-eastern Iran, low-intensity fighting continues, with Kurdish rebels and Baluchi organizations like “Jish al-Adal” carrying out targeted attacks against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters.
Erosion of security forces
The regular army maintains passive neutrality, avoiding direct suppression of protesters amid quiet desertions and soldier resentment. Basij militia members operate under pressure, and the regime is forced to recruit teenagers aged 14–17 and rely increasingly on mercenaries from foreign Shiite militias.
SENTCOM’s civilian blindness and the opportunity
Recent reports that the US Central Command is seeking “creative ideas to punish Iran” should raise discomfort. The problem is that the American approach remains military and tactical, measuring success through bombs and firepower. It is essential to think in civilian, social, and consciousness-related terms. In the current internal situation, rare opportunities for regime change exist precisely through civilian and economic means backed by military support.
The collapse of infrastructure, water and electricity shortages, frustration with foreign militias, and damage to civilian space create deep cracks that can be exploited in a combined, sophisticated campaign. The commander of SENTCOM’s military campaign must appoint a commander for a civilian-consciousness campaign as soon as possible. The ideas that topple the regime will not necessarily come from the military arena, but from a deep understanding of the civilian dynamics within Iran.
