"Over time, people will have to eat less meat": The Chief Scientist's forecast

"The Consumer Price Index published last week, which includes a decrease in fruit and vegetable prices, still does not reflect the surge in food prices in global markets, which is expected to lead to price increases in Israel as well in the coming months." This is according to Adv. Yossi Wolfson, a member of the Israeli Climate Forum council founded by the President of the State, following the publication of the Consumer Price Index for July.

According to Adv. Wolfson, "The extreme events we are experiencing - especially the drought and heat waves hitting Europe, East Asia, and North America - have led to a severe loss of crops. The food price index of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization has already reached a three-year high. For Israel, the rise in wheat prices has particularly serious significance due to the high dependence on wheat imports, which is produced in a limited number of regions in the world. The loss of crops in these countries, as we see today, immediately leads to a global shortage and soaring prices." Adv. Wolfson emphasizes that "the current price increase is only a 'taste' of the food crises expected to occur with increasing severity."

The encouraging news is that professional bodies have already prepared orderly plans to increase the resilience of the Israeli food system in the face of global crises: investment in local, sustainable, and advanced agriculture, adapted to climate changes, which is supposed to ensure the food security of Israeli citizens even during a crisis, including a transition to a diet based on more healthy plant-based foods, which will reduce dependence on grain imports for animal feed and our carbon footprint and will contribute to mitigating the climate crisis. "To prevent a surge in food prices in the coming years, it is vital to adopt the plan as soon as possible by government decision, budget it, and implement it," says Adv. Wolfson.

Chief Scientist of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Dr. Michal Levy, is convinced in an interview with "Maariv Business" that Israel has all the knowledge and tools to deal with exactly the burning issue that the ministry's name bears - food security in the era of the climate crisis. Levy is not only a top-tier professional in the public service, but also, and above all, the mother of Captain Rotem (Yosef) Levy, who fell in battle in the northern Gaza Strip on December 18, 2023, at the age of 24. She conducts the conversation with us as a scientist who has managed, like other bereaved parents, to do the impossible and continue her work alongside the heavy grief. Towards the end of the conversation, we will return to Rotem and the optimism that his image instills in Michal, and in all of us.

Should the small State of Israel, a commercial "island state" and a "hot spot" of global warming, fear for its food security in the era of the climate crisis? "We all experience fluctuations in the weather, but we don't fully understand their broad implications for our lives. I think Israel shouldn't fear, because in complex situations, Israel has the ability to import food. At the same time, we think that more should be invested in local production. The field I deal with provides solutions for the medium and long term: what will happen in five years and in twenty years - and to prepare for it. We look forward with a variety of tools and build from it our plans and our future investments in research and development through the various government decisions."

Foodtech innovations are not yet consumer products, and even in 2026, the food of most of us will still not rely on lab-grown crops but on classic crops in the fields. Does a country with a small area have reason to fear even an approaching season of torrential rains or a super El Niño? "I am not talking in the near term about foodtech, but about fresh produce in local production. It is true that we do not have enough area and optimal conditions for all crops, it is clear to everyone that some of our food will continue to come from imports. But from reading our food security plan, one can understand that we are also connecting to the recommendation of the Ministry of Health, which says that in the end, the goal is to encourage the consumption of plant protein. It is not about cultured or printed meat, it is about chickpeas, peas, lentils, and so on. And our work looks towards the future of the climate crisis.

"Chickpeas, for example, are used in Israel in crop rotation, that is, to maintain the fertility of the soil and avoid soil diseases, and chickpeas are used a lot as a complementary crop for this purpose. We suggest, for example, chickpeas as a profitable target crop. And this as an alternative to meat."

You are talking here about a cultural matter. We are one of the leading meat-consuming countries in the world relative to the size of the population. "I agree. One of the things I regret is that the Ministry of Education was not a partner with us in the national food security program, because education for sustainable nutrition is an integral part of these moves."

You are essentially saying that veganism is not just a movement for animals, but primarily the diet of the future. "I myself am not a vegetarian or a vegan, but I do reduce and believe that over time people will have to reduce meat consumption, because its prices will rise as a result of the climate crisis. It is not something that will happen tomorrow morning, it will be a process. We will have to adapt to a different kind of cooking, but it will still be tasty for us."

Epidemics in general are more common in the era of climate change, and as it happens with livestock for food, it can also happen with plant crops. "That is why we are investing in development, in agrotech, and in adapting these crops to the changing conditions. It is clear that we will need varieties that know how to make more efficient use of water, with fewer pesticides, and give a larger yield even in more complex climate conditions. Last year, we issued two very significant calls for proposals for important research, which include teaming up several researchers from several fields of knowledge, one on the subject of wheat and the second on the subject of chickpeas, precisely to take these two basic crops and turn them into something higher quality and more profitable."

Wheat needs vast areas that exist in Ukraine, Germany, and Britain and do not exist in Israel. "True, and this connects to a number of our moves. One of them is the development of water infrastructure even for plots that do not have water. Our local wheat cultivation is rain-fed agriculture, which relies on rain and not on irrigation. This creates complexity, because the wheat yield in climate crisis conditions decreases."

The prevailing opinion is that it is obvious that Israel knows how to produce its food by itself, because we are considered a power of agricultural developments. Are we prepared with agreements with other countries for a faster case of climate damage to local and global agriculture? "We received hints of a food crisis that could be immediate already during the Corona period and since the war in Ukraine. Of course, the ministry is also preparing on issues of trade and import. In the meantime, we are coping nicely, but there can be surprises. When we talk about our turn to local research and development, we rely on our human capital. In a government decision we passed, it was decided, out of an understanding that the climate crisis also creates surprises for us, that a hangar with perfect climate control will be built in the north. In the world, there are such facilities where lettuce and herbs are grown, mainly because of their fast life cycle and the ability for the crop to be economical. The goal of the facility that will be built here will be, among other things, the development of varieties adapted to climate control conditions that will be economical and with high caloric value, like vegetables.

"I also dream of potatoes that can be grown in laboratory conditions. This is a basic crop in our kitchen and I believe we have the tools and scientific capabilities to do it. Another thing that will happen in this research center will be the efficiency of energy saving, because these are facilities that consume a lot of energy. I am talking about growing food disconnected from the environment. If the climate crisis continues to beat us, this is what will give us the answer. I also started promoting an idea of electricity price for agriculture, like there is a water price for agriculture."

We are already world leaders in agro-voltaic electricity, when farmers produce electricity for themselves. "That is in open fields. I am talking about a facility like the one the state will build in the north, which will be closed and consume a lot of energy. Like server farms, for that matter. We will have to take that into account as well."

The concerns stem from the fact that Israel cannot grow all its food by itself in the foreseeable future, and the climate crisis is progressing at a faster pace than science. How much can one prepare, if at all, for an epidemic that destroys crops until resistant varieties are developed? "We know about a virus that already exists today that severely damages tomato crops and has no pesticide solution. The ways to deal with it are increased sanitation, growing tomatoes in greenhouses and very protected net houses - and there are such. One needs to be a very strict farmer. There is a large project we launched together with the Tkuma Administration on the subject of tomatoes, because in the Western Negev this is a common crop, and it is about existing work practices that need to be promoted already today. When we talk about developing knowledge, it is not only about future research, but also about a toolbox that is already available to the farmer today, partly chemical, partly biological, and partly work methods. We have a similar project also in almond crops."

The agriculture of the future, as it is portrayed from our conversation, is sterile laboratory agriculture, and not the farmer plowing his fields in the scorching sun. "On the contrary. We are making great efforts in soil conservation, soil improvement, dealing with pests, and so on for future generations. Soil conservation from erosion, how to fertilize intelligently and differently. I don't think we are lagging behind the forces of nature and I am also not afraid of them. We know how to read the map correctly and use tools to provide an answer to these challenges and as much as possible in real time."

We left the conversation optimistic. "I am the most optimistic person. Two and a half years ago, I lost my son in Shuja'iyya in Gaza. My beloved Rotem. If they had told me three years ago that something would happen to my son, I would have immediately said that I would simply die. The work gives me a lot, life is surprising. I am learning to live and holding onto him with every fiber of my soul and heart. At every moment he is before my eyes."

In the words Dr. Levy delivered at the last Memorial Day ceremony at the Ministry of Agriculture, she said: "Ten days before he fell, I hugged Rotem before he returned to the fighting and my breath stopped. A feeling of immense worry descended upon me. He probably felt it and told me 'Mom, I'm okay, we are strong, we are doing significant work.' Since his fall, work is not just work. It is a daily reminder that we must continue to grow, innovate, and serve the public also in his name. My workplace has gained an even deeper meaning since his fall, of mission and commitment to continue the path. On one occasion, Rotem wrote about the role of the officer in his view - 'They need me here, so I am here.' In the sense that a person must know how to give where he is required, and not just where he wants. Rotem is not here, but he continues to teach me love for man, every day that I enter the office to do good out of a belief that this is the true victory."