“Incubator Arc”: US Redeploys Forces in the Middle East Amid Iran Threat
The US Department of Defense has begun implementing a secret plan, dubbed “Incubator Arc,” to withdraw strategic air assets from forward bases near Iran to protect them from potential preemptive strikes.
The US Department of Defense has begun implementing a secret and urgent military plan to reduce its air and offensive presence at forward US bases in the Middle East, according to a report on the 'Aram News' website citing Western sources.
According to the report, the plan, dubbed 'Incubator Arc', includes the withdrawal of strategic air assets and a reduction in the number of offensive forces at bases located near Iran. Its activation occurred in parallel with US President Donald Trump's decision to cancel the planned airstrike against Iran.
Sources claimed that following the cancellation of the strike, a move initially intended to serve as preparation for a broad campaign effectively became an undeclared defensive array, aimed at protecting the US Air Force from a preemptive strike. According to information leaked from military planning systems and which, according to the sources, intersected with indications identified by international security research institutes, the US has begun transferring squadrons of F-15 and F-16 aircraft, as well as aerial refueling aircraft, from exposed runways at bases adjacent to Iran.
The aircraft were transferred to a more protected rear geographical arc, stretching from islands in the Mediterranean to NATO bases in Southern Europe. The goal of the move is to keep American aircraft out of Iran's direct fire range and reduce the risk of extensive damage to infrastructure and aircraft. Washington is particularly concerned about a scenario of an Iranian saturation attack using missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, which could cause heavy casualties and lead both sides to a broad confrontation that would eliminate the possibility of continuing political contacts.
Fear of a warning time of less than two minutes
According to the report, the intelligence assessments upon which the plan is based state that the traditional deployment of forces at forward bases has become a significant vulnerability. The geographical proximity to Iran shortens the warning time of Patriot and THAAD systems to less than two minutes in the event of missile fire or the launch of suicide drones.
For this reason, it was decided to empty some of the runways and turn the nearby bases primarily into ground defense lines, designed to absorb the first blow, while the main offensive capability is transferred to more distant and protected bases.
After the cancellation of the strike against Iran, the plan, according to the sources, became a strategy of 'over-the-horizon deterrence'. The US seeks to manage the potential campaign outside the range of direct Iranian fire, while maintaining strategic bombers and long-range aircraft at bases in Southern Europe and operating rapid launch points in the Mediterranean region. In parallel, the Pentagon continued to keep destroyers equipped with the 'AEGIS' defense system on high alert in the eastern Mediterranean and the Arabian Sea, with the aim of protecting the airspace and shipping lanes.
Sources emphasized that the withdrawal of aircraft and forces from bases near Iran does not necessarily indicate a retreat from the possibility of a confrontation, but rather a conceptual change and preparation for a long-term attack relying on air power operated from a distance and on independent platforms.
US assets in Israel were excluded
It was further claimed in the report that the plan excluded the American air assets stationed in Israel, with the aim of maintaining an available means of military pressure in case political contacts fail.
According to the sources, the Pentagon left F-35 aircraft at the Nevatim and Hatzerim bases in the Negev, based on the assessment that Israel's multi-layered air defense array, reinforced by the THAAD system, is capable of providing them with better protection. By doing so, according to the report, the US seeks to maintain an aerial 'spearhead' close to the arena, which could act quickly in the event of a collapse of negotiations.
'Aram News' claimed that the freezing of the strike by the White House's decision created a new operational reality: forward bases are gradually becoming centers of defense and absorption, while the bulk of the offensive force is transferred overseas. However, no official response from the Pentagon confirming the existence of the plan or its details was attached to the report.
