Aramco CEO Warns Global Oil Inventory Recovery Will Take Up to Two Years

Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned this week that restoring global oil inventories to pre-crisis levels following the conflict with Iran could take up to two years. Nasser stated that the world entered the crisis with nearly 10 billion barrels in storage, has since lost nearly 3 billion barrels of gross supply, and has already drawn more than 1 billion barrels from reserves. The market has lost the security cushion that once allowed it to absorb shocks.

While Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, recovered to about 81% of pre-war levels in September, refined products have lagged significantly. Consequently, a resumption of crude oil exports does not equate to a balanced market. This gap explains why oil prices can drop temporarily even while the system remains vulnerable. Emergency releases and increased shipments alleviate short-term pressure, but they do not restore commercial inventories or fix refining capacity shortages.

With a two-year recovery timeline, any disruption to pipelines, refineries, or shipping lanes carries heightened weight. Nasser warned that the world has shifted from excess security to a state where logistics and inventories are priced into market risk, even after supply recovers.

Brent crude, which traded above $100 per barrel last week, fell below $98 today following export recoveries and planned emergency stockpile releases. However, this dip does not signal a return to normalcy. Inventories remain low, global fuel supply is constrained, and physical market prices stay elevated.