After 100,000 dead: is the brutal civil war in Myanmar nearing an end?
The umbrella organization of Myanmar's rebel militias announced it is open to a 'political settlement' and the junta regime is holding contacts with mediating countries. Military gains for regime forces and a new civilian government under the junta's patronage offer a rare window of opportunity for talks.
After more than five years of fighting, a rare window of opportunity has emerged to end the devastating civil war in Myanmar, driven by a shift on the battlefield where the military has regained its footing and growing regional pressure to intervene.
According to a report by Reuters, analysts point to a profound change in the position of the umbrella organization of armed ethnic groups and the shadow government of the rebels, led by remnants of the country's last elected government before the 2021 military coup.
The Steering Council of the Federal Democratic Union (SCEF) said after a meeting last month with the foreign ministers of Thailand and the Philippines, who also met separately with Myanmar's military negotiating committee, that it is committed to pursuing a political settlement.
Myanmar's junta chief turned president, Min Aung Hlaing, has yet to accept the SCEF as a negotiating partner, but his visit this week to Thailand, which is pushing for a gradual resumption of the regional ASEAN bloc's engagement with its war-torn neighbor, highlights broader efforts to achieve a ceasefire.
"It seems the rebels have abandoned their previously stated public goal of toppling the junta regime," said Morgan Michaels, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, referring to the SCEF and the junta regime known as the "Tatmadaw." "Still, political dialogue between the Tatmadaw and the SCEF groups may be quite far off. The more near-term prospect is that we will see movement toward 'talks about talks'."
"Open to dialogue"
The goal of the SCEF is to ensure civilian supremacy and push the Myanmar military out of any political role, said SCEF spokesperson Saw Nimrod. "This is our final call, but for now we are committed to achieving a political solution through negotiations," he told Reuters. "We are open to dialogue and open to political negotiations."
To create conditions for meaningful dialogue, the SCEF has called on the military to stop attacks on civilians and release all political prisoners. The Myanmar military uses destructive tactics against the civilian population and has destroyed dozens of villages and towns in rebel-controlled areas in airstrikes.
Myanmar's new government, which took office after elections planned by the military that allowed Min Aung Hlaing to take a civilian role, has also called on armed groups to hold talks by July 31.
"Peace is our wish, our greatest wish," Min Aung Hlaing told parliament last week, although military bloggers have pointed to a sharp escalation in military attacks on civilians since the leadership change.
Regime army gains
The conflict in Myanmar, sparked by a February 2021 military coup that ousted a government led by former Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, has resulted in the deaths of over 100,000 people, displaced millions, and destroyed the economy of a country that was already poor.
After a series of setbacks, the military initiated a mandatory conscription program, secured critical support from key allies like China, and implemented new battlefield tactics to help reverse the trend.
Beyond the strategic border areas that the military seeks to recapture, armed groups in Myanmar's central Bago and southern Dawei regions have retreated from certain areas due to intense attacks by government forces, two fighters told Reuters.
"The military, which was previously considered on the verge of collapse, has not collapsed but has managed to survive, both politically and militarily," said Aung Ko Ko, an independent Myanmar analyst.
Diplomatic pressure for negotiations
Some armed ethnic organizations that are part of the SCEF are under international pressure to negotiate with the Myanmar government, three analysts told Reuters.
These groups, including the Karen National Union, the Kachin Independence Organization, the Chin National Front, and the Karenni National Progressive Party, did not respond to requests for comment. The Thai government, which will host Min Aung Hlaing on Thursday and Friday, has been a key player in pushing for Myanmar's re-engagement with the regional ASEAN bloc, which distanced itself from the leadership in Naypyidaw after the coup due to its foot-dragging on a peace plan.
For Bangkok, the priority is reducing violence, expanding humanitarian access, and preventing the conflict from spilling over into Thailand, said a senior Thai official who asked not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the issue.
So far, Naypyidaw has not accepted the SCEF as an interlocutor, instead seeking bilateral discussions with individual groups, said Richard Horsey, a senior advisor on Asia at the International Crisis Group. "All parties to the conflict are in principle willing to hear what the other side has to say, but a peace process requires concessions toward some jointly agreed outcome," he said. "That seems far off for most groups."
