Amit Segal: Netanyahu Led to a New and First-of-Its-Kind Phenomenon in Likud

Channel 12 commentator Amit Segal was interviewed this morning (Sunday) on 103FM and addressed Gilad Erdan's new party following his departure from Likud. "There was an offer for a reserved spot; someone is always sent, and someone definitely offered it to him. It was based on an offer from Netanyahu, a sort of probe," he noted.

However, he emphasized that the offer was much less decisive and final than how Erdan presented it: "I think Erdan has been in the process of establishing a new party for two or three months. Things got complicated there, both due to the pursuit of seven or eight figures and because this bloc, which seemed very large at first, is shrinking over time, but it was not on the agenda."

In addition, Segal is convinced that Erdan could have placed high within the Likud list in the upcoming party primaries: "I think Erdan would have placed in the Likud primaries—not first or second, but he would have secured a spot. Leaving Likud now is, apparently, against his political interest. Netanyahu's reserved spots are a relatively new phenomenon; Likud never reserved spots until 10 years ago, and there were never 'highlight' figures there. All the names mentioned—Yossi Cohen, Gabi Ashkenazi—if such things happen, it will definitely be a precedent. Netanyahu has eight reserved spots: one goes to Sa'ar, two to attempts to organize the bloc, and five remain, which are actually four because the 29th spot—who will take it when polls predict 22? Not a former Shin Bet chief."

He addressed Gabi Ashkenazi, whose name has come up more than once in the context of joining Likud: "Gabi Ashkenazi, with whom there were probes, is an event that can work in both directions. It 'whitewashes' Netanyahu in areas he hasn't visited for years, among people who don't like him, and it can signal to right-wing voters: 'Wait, if that's the case, then I'm going to Smotrich and Ben Gvir'." Regarding the right-wing bloc, he concluded: "Three right-wing parties, including Winter's, is not sustainable. There needs to be a smart connection; the assumption is that there will be Darwinism or cannibalism in the remaining weeks. In the end, there is no room there for more than one party, and even that I am not so sure about."

Segal also made a comparison between the Ra'am party and Shas: "It's a very interesting event, even unprecedented. We know Jewish MKs in Arab parties. Mansour Abbas has a goal; he wants to be a minister in the next government. His way of doing it is to reserve a spot for Saglovich or talk a lot about the fact that they are reserving a spot for him. Will a candidate eventually be reserved who is a secular Jew with clear views on religion and state issues who does not think the Law of Return is a racist law? That seems a bit exaggerated to me.

Regarding Ra'am, it reminds me a lot—apologies to both sides for the comparison—of Shas. Shas is also a party with a very religious light that winked at other audiences for many years. At the peak of its power, most of its voters were not ultra-Orthodox at all. Deri and Abbas remind me a lot of each other: their absolute ability to control the agenda, to understand the essence of the press, and to throw balloons into the air. Until I see it, I find it hard to believe."