Polymarket Traders Favor Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! Party in Upcoming Knesset Elections

Despite the political turmoil in Israel, traders on the international prediction platform Polymarket continue to give the "Yashar!" party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, the lead in the race to become the largest faction in the upcoming Knesset.

As of today, "Yashar!" holds an estimated 59% probability on Polymarket of finishing the election with the highest number of mandates, compared to about 42% for the "Likud". This represents a significant shift from periods when the race was much tighter, with recent days seeing a renewed strengthening of "Yashar!" in the prediction market.

Market Activity and Volumes

So far, contracts totaling approximately $658,000 have been traded on Polymarket specifically regarding the identity of the party that will win the most seats. According to site data, the probability assigned to "Yashar!" rose by about ten percentage points over the past day, while the probability for the "Likud" dropped by about 7.5 points.

"Despite the political drama, those willing to put money on election outcomes still give Eisenkot a clear advantage regarding which party will finish first in Israel."

Race for Prime Minister

Regarding the question of who will be the next prime minister, Gadi Eisenkot leads clearly. According to data on the platform, Eisenkot enjoys a 48% probability of being appointed prime minister, compared to 31% for Benjamin Netanyahu. Naftali Bennett ranks third with 16%, and Avigdor Lieberman trails far behind with only 1.8%.

It is important to emphasize that Polymarket is not an opinion poll. It is a prediction market where participants buy and sell contracts based on their assessments of future outcomes. Nevertheless, the market message remains clear: international participants continue to bet on Gadi Eisenkot's party to finish in first place.