US Midterm Prediction Platforms See Over $1.4 Billion in Trading Volume
Trading volume on US prediction platforms ahead of the congressional midterms has surpassed 1.4 billion dollars, led by Kalshi and Polymarket, reshaping political culture despite regulatory scrutiny.
Trading volume on prediction platforms ahead of the upcoming US congressional midterm elections has exceeded 1.4 billion dollars, according to a CNN analysis. This year has been marked by sharp growth in the prediction industry, where individuals can wager on real-world events ranging from politics to sports and entertainment.
While small-scale election markets have existed for some time, they gained massive momentum ahead of the 2024 US presidential election and have continued to surge toward the 2026 midterms. Trading volume on Kalshi, the largest US prediction market, tied to the midterms has reached nearly 1.1 billion dollars, according to the company. This figure includes markets dealing with specific race outcomes, voter turnout percentages, endorsements by prominent figures, debate occurrences, and rally statements.
Meanwhile, trading volume related to the elections on its competitor Polymarket stands at over 340 million dollars, a company spokesperson told CNN. This figure encompasses trading on Polymarket’s platform tailored for the US as well as its international site operating outside the country.
"This is significant," said industry expert Dustin Gauker. "It is still much less than the sports and crypto markets, but it is a large trading volume. And it has value. It provides a meaningful signal that offers probabilities incorporating polls and public sentiment." Experts note that trading is expected to intensify significantly on election day.
CNN points out that prediction platforms are disrupting US political culture, with campaign staffers and donors exhibiting an obsession over winning odds. Federal regulators have pledged to crack down on insider trading related to the midterms. Kalshi has already suspended six candidates in the elections due to improper betting on their own races. In July, New York filed a lawsuit against Kalshi, alleging it failed to obtain a license from the New York State Gaming Commission to operate its platform.
