Unity at the Front, Division at Home: Iran's Leadership Struggles Over War Strategy

Facing the escalation in attacks against American bases and Washington's allies in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East, Iran's leaders present a united front and a determination to prove that they can survive a prolonged confrontation. However, beneath the surface, within the top leadership in Tehran, a sharp and deep debate is raging regarding the war's end strategy.

US President Donald Trump announced early this morning (Sunday) that he had decided to cancel a planned American strike in Iran, but in the Islamic Republic, there are divisions regarding the war's goals. On one side of the barricade stand the radicals — members of the "Paydari" ("Stability" in Persian) movement. These are hard-core ideologues who oppose any negotiations with the United States, call for a total military victory, and demand to re-tighten religious-social enforcement in Iran.

Opposite them stands the moderate camp, identified with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. This camp views military pressure only as a means, the goal of which is to extract achievements at the negotiating table with Washington. Their position is heavily influenced by the heavy economic price the war is exacting from Tehran, and by the understanding that the regime must show flexibility toward the changes in Iranian society.

"Negotiations are a political tool and a complement to military action, the goal of which is to bring the enemy to a point of coercion and extract real concessions from them," clarified Mahdi Mohammadi, Ghalibaf's advisor.

The open and unconventional rivalry at the top of the regime reflects a passionate power struggle over the "day after." A major question mark hangs over the position of the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who according to reports was wounded in the attack in which his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was eliminated on February 28. Both camps are trying to claim that they enjoy the support of the leader who remains in hiding.

With the push of Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf, the ceasefire deal reached with the United States in April received strong support in Iran's senior leadership body, the Supreme National Security Council. 12 out of its 13 members approved it, including senior figures in the Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian army. Saeed Jalili, considered one of the most radical figures in the regime and very prominent in the "Paydari" movement, was the only one who voted against the deal.

The ceasefire, as is known, collapsed, the United States and Iran returned to exchanging blows, and in Tehran, frustration grew in light of the fact that the promises of the memorandum of understanding reached in June were not realized. The funeral of Supreme Leader Khamenei looked like a show of force by the radical "Paydari" movement. The masses called for revenge against the United States and Israel; in several videos, mourners in Tehran were seen welcoming Jalili, while Pezeshkian encountered insults and chants of "Death to the compromiser!".

Moreover, the hardliners used night rallies and their control over state television (IRIB) to fuel opposition to negotiations. Speakers at those rallies described Iran as marching toward total victory and expressed firm condemnation of those willing to negotiate with the sworn enemy of the Islamic Republic. State television interrupted speeches by Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf. Pezeshkian and his camp fought back, presenting state television as dividing the country during wartime. The president even accused the broadcasting body of creating a false impression that "the army is on one side, and the government is on another." The president's communications apparatus even condemned state television for what it defined as "censoring" the words of Pezeshkian and other government heads.

"A lot of money and power"

"Although Jalili's supporters are a minority, they are very influential," said Vali Nasr, a professor of international relations and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University in Maryland, USA. "They have a lot of money, a lot of power, they have inserted many people into the bureaucracy and developed extensive ties with the Revolutionary Guards."

The more pragmatic camp argues that maintaining unity during wartime requires addressing public frustration with the economic situation, as well as with political and social oppression. The Iranian currency continues to plummet, inflation is soaring, and unemployment is rising. A final agreement with the Americans could yield Iran a huge profit thanks to the lifting of sanctions and the return of assets worth billions of dollars.

More than 250 former lawmakers, clerics, lecturers, and other public figures signed a petition in July against the war, warning against the price of continuing the confrontation. "We believe that the vast majority of the Iranian people want peace and the right to live with dignity," the petition stated. At the same time, a senior reformist party that helped Pezeshkian's presidential campaign warned that the internal price of the war is "eroding internal social cohesion." In the "Tasnim" news agency, which is close to the Revolutionary Guards, they scolded the moderates.

Ultimately, both sides are fighting for power and influence in the "day after the war," in light of the unusual uncertainty created following the dramatic change in the supreme leadership. While some believe that Mojtaba Khamenei may be more radical than his father, others see in him the potential for leading moderate change.