Survey reveals: Decline in support for Hamas and armed struggle

A new survey published by Khalil Shikaki points to a shift in Palestinian public opinion following the war in Gaza: support for Hamas has declined, as has the percentage of those supporting armed struggle. Marwan Barghouti emerges as the leading candidate to succeed Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) as Chairman of the Palestinian Authority, with 39% support. However, a rigid position remains regarding weapons: 72% of Palestinians oppose disarming Hamas before a full withdrawal of the IDF from the Strip.

The survey was conducted face-to-face in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between August 5 and August 8, 2026, among a sample of 1,270 Palestinians (830 in the West Bank and 440 in the Strip). The study took place against the backdrop of preparations for the Palestinian Legislative Council and presidential elections in early 2027, and following Hamas's announcement of accepting the Peace Council's plan.

Key Survey Findings

Candidates for PA Chairman:

1. Marwan Barghouti — 39%

2. Khalil al-Hayya — 16%

3. Mohammed Dahlan — 15%

4. Mustafa Barghouti — 6%

(25% do not know or chose another candidate).

Disarming Hamas before IDF withdrawal:

• Oppose: 72%

• Support: 20%

(Opposition is higher in the West Bank at 79%, compared to 62% in the Gaza Strip).

Party Support:

• Fatah — 24%

• Hamas — 24%

• Other parties — 14%

• None / do not know — 38%

Over the past 10 months, support for Hamas among the general public has decreased from 35% to 24%. Support for Fatah remained at 24%.

Paths to Ending the Conflict

Regarding the most effective way to end the Israeli occupation and establish an independent Palestinian state, respondents stated:

• Negotiations — 44% (up from 36%)

• Armed struggle — 27% (down from 41%)

• Non-violent popular resistance — 19% (up from 14%)

When asked which party is most worthy of representing the Palestinian people, 28% chose Hamas (down from 41%), 21% chose Fatah led by Abu Mazen, and 44% stated that neither movement is worthy of leading them.

Trust and Regional Actors

Regarding the outcome of the war in Gaza, 41% believe the current situation will continue, 30% expect stability and reconstruction, and 21% predict a resumption of full-scale war.

Trust in bodies overseeing the Trump plan remains low: 24% trust the Peace Council, and 32% trust the National Committee for the Management of Gaza. Among regional actors, Palestinians express the most satisfaction with the Houthis in Yemen (61%), Qatar (51%), Hezbollah (50%), and Iran (50%).